USD: It is likely to be another tough day for risk assets. Asian equities are down and both European and US futures point to a meaningfully lower open following the disappointing results from the US technology firms. Adding to this the US Presidential election looming next week and the deteriorating situation in Europe (on the Covid and by extension the economic outlook fronts), the lift risk assets obtained from the dovish ECB message yesterday is unlikely to last. USD to stay supported today.
CAD: The loonie went full circle in the past month, reacting mostly to global risk sentiment and its impact on the USD. A more pessimistic view on global growth as virus cases escalated and US stimulus was delayed sent USD/CAD back to the 1.33 level over the last few days. That’s a weaker CAD than the starting point of the year, but not weak enough to support Canadian exports in the medium term. Look for CAD to give up ground over the coming months.
EUR: The ECB surprised yesterday both in the strength and the scope of the pre-commitment to the December easing, with President Lagarde noting that all instruments are being looked for possible ‘’recalibration.’’ While a clear short-term EUR negative, given the build-up in expectations (the market brought forward expectations for a rate cute), the extension of asset purchases on their own, and in the absence of rate cuts (which we don’t expect), may not cause any more permanent damage to EUR. Given a lot is priced in by now, EUR/USD downside should be limited from here.
GBP: Remains immune to global factors and with rising odds of an eventual UK-EU trade deal, the downside for GBP should be limited.
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