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Canadian Dollar Forecast, September 2022

CANADIAN BANK CURRENCY FORECAST

US Canadian Forecast 2022

CAD - Canadian Dollar: The Canadian economy is beginning to show cracks. On the domestic front, the Bank of Canada is currentlytaking a hawkish approach, raising interest rates at each meeting by increasing their magnitude in an effort to choke off inflation. The cost of living has gone up for the average Canadian family and debt repayment has become more expensive due to high interest rates. The economic data has begun to trend downward, and more bleak readings are imminent. As the local and international picture continues to deteriorate, the USD/CAD should resume its downward trajectory to 1.33. 

 

USD/CAD Forecast

Bank Trend August 2022 Q3 2022 (forecast) Q4 2022 (forecast) Q1 2023 (forecast) Q2 2023 (forecast)
CIBC 1.30 1.29 1.31 1.33 1.33
TD 1.30 1.27 1.24 1.26 1.28
BNS 1.30 1.27 1.27 1.25 1.25
RBC 1.30 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.33
BMO 1.30 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.27
Average 1.30 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.29

Euro Canadian Forecast 2022

EUR - Euro: In order to exit the negative interest rate zone, the ECB announced a "surprise" rate increase of 0.5%. The rate increase had no positive effects on the euro. At the moment, it is stagnantly trading near parity with the US dollar. The market believes that the European Central Bank is moving too slowly to combat the high inflation rate. Because of Russia's disruptions to the natural gas supply, the outlook for economic growth in the Eurozone remains dim. The Euro will decline a few cents below parity against the US dollar if there is a significant disruption in the energy supply. EUR/short-term USD's range is between 0.97 and 1.00.GBP Comment.

 

EUR/CAD Forecast

Bank Trend August 2022 Q3 2022 (forecast) Q4 2022 (forecast) Q1 2023 (forecast) Q2 2023 (forecast)
CIBC 1.31 1.28 1.31 1.37 1.4
TD 1.31 1.31 1.29 1.34 1.38
BNS 1.31 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.28
RBC 1.31 1.32 1.31 1.28 1.33
BMO 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31
Average 1.31 1.29 1.29 1.31 1.34

GBP Canadian Forecast 2022

GBP - British Pound: In an effort to curb inflation, which is currently at 13%, the Bank of England has hiked interest rates six times since December 2021, bringing rates to 1.75%. The Bank of England's aggressive hawkish approach has not benefited the GBP, which is still declining and is currently trading at approximately 1.16 to the US Dollar. Further increases in energy prices will stifle economic growth, according to a hawkish central bank. A 15-month recession is predicted to hit the UK economy. GBP/USD is anticipated to drop to 1.15. 

 

GBP/CAD Forecast

Bank Trend August 2022 Q3 2022 (forecast) Q4 2022 (forecast) Q1 2023 (forecast) Q2 2023 (forecast)
CIBC 1.54 1.5 1.53 1.6 1.61
TD 1.54 1.5 1.61 1.68 1.73
BNS 1.54 1.47 1.46 1.48 1.50
RBC 1.54 1.52 1.45 1.41 1.46
BMO 1.54 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.53
Average 1.54 1.51 1.52 1.54 1.57

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