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Canadian Dollar Forecast, July 2021

CANADIAN BANK CURRENCY FORECAST

USD/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (June) July. 2021 (forecast) Q3 2021 (forecast) Q4 2021 (forecast) Q1 2022 (forecast)
CIBC 1.26 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28
TD 1.26 1.24 1.20 1.21 1.22
BNS 1.26 1.27 1.23 1.23 1.22
RBC 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.25 1.26
BMO 1.26 1.24 1.21 1.20 1.20
Average 1.26 1.25 1.23 1.23 1.24

Summary

While the loonie continues to remain the single top performer against the greenback in the G10 this year, it has started to lose some of its luster. CAD has given up significant ground since the Fed’s mid-June announcement, in which markets perceived the Fed moving forward projected rate hikes into 2023. Gains in the price of oil has done little to limit CAD depreciation. All said, the banks are split in the trajectory of the loonie over the coming quarters with a range of 1.20 – 1.28 by Q1 2022.

EUR/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (June) July. 2021 (forecast) Q3 2021 (forecast) Q4 2021 (forecast) Q1 2022 (forecast)
CIBC 1.47 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.47
TD 1.47 1.47 1.46 1.49 1.51
BNS 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.46 1.45
RBC 1.47 1.50 1.45 1.43 1.42
BMO 1.47 1.50 1.46 1.45 1.45
Average 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.46 1.46

Summary

There has been a strong uptick in the forward-looking data for the eurozone as survey data continues to validate a strong economic recovery. After a slow start, the eurozone’s vaccine rollout has gathered pace, with the proportion of the eurozone population full vaccinated now only just behind G-7 averages. Although the prospect of a broad re-opening has resulted in a sharp upgrade in growth expectations, most don’t expect the ECB to move away from its current relaxed liquidity stance. Canadian banks forecast a Q1 2022 EUR/CAD range between 1.42-1.51.

GBP/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (June) July. 2021 (forecast) Q3 2021 (forecast) Q4 2021 (forecast) Q1 2022 (forecast)
CIBC 1.73 1.73 1.75 1.77 1.78
TD 1.73 1.72 1.69 1.69 1.71
BNS 1.73 1.73 1.67 1.68 1.66
RBC 1.73 1.72 1.69 1.68 1.66
BMO 1.73 1.73 1.71 1.69 1.69
Average 1.73 1.73 1.70 1.70 1.70

Summary

Similar to the loonie, the GBP/CAD target range across all five banks remains quite large (Q1 2022 1.66-1.78). That said, the UK seems primed for strong growth as the country moves toward a full reopening. Strong consumer-based growth may cause the BoE to re-evaluate it’s wait and see approach forcing the bank to consider an earlier that expected interest rate hike. Most analysts expect the GBP to outperform the USD over the coming months.

Currency Chart

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