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Canadian Dollar Forecast, April 2021

USD/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (March) Apr. 2021 (forecast) Q2 2021 (forecast) Q3 2021 (forecast) Q4 2021 (forecast)
CIBC 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.30
TD 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.23
BNS 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.23
RBC 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.28
BMO 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.25
Average 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26


The loonie is one of only two major currencies to record a material appreciation against the USD since early March.  However, the enthusiasm around crude prices that drove those gains has since been tempered, combined with a USD that is now broadly back in favor with investors, CAD will likely remain steady into mid-year. With the third wave forcing fresh shutdowns across Canada, the economic performance gap to the US is set to be magnified in the coming months, as the US is miles ahead of Canada in terms of fiscal stimulus, vaccinations, and re-openings.

EUR/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (March) Apr. 2021 (forecast) Q2 2021 (forecast) Q3 2021 (forecast) Q4 2021 (forecast)
CIBC 1.47 1.50 1.46 1.50 1.56
TD 1.47 1.51 1.52 1.52 1.53
BNS 1.47 1.56 1.58 1.55 1.55
RBC 1.47 1.54 1.46 1.46 1.48
BMO 1.47 1.50 1.46 1.47 1.48
Average 1.47 1.52 1.50 1.50 1.52


The first quarter witnessed the single currency depreciate by around 4% versus the USD. The extension of official lockdown measures across parts of the zone makes the ECB’s recovery assumptions look increasingly improbable. While the ECB will maintain an easy monetary stance, the fiscal backdrop relative to the US remains somewhat constrained. The EUR will struggle in the near term, but most expect a mild rebound into Q2.

GBP/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (March) Apr. 2021 (forecast) Q2 2021 (forecast) Q3 2021 (forecast) Q4 2021 (forecast)
CIBC 1.73 1.73 1.74 1.79 1.85
TD 1.73 1.78 1.75 1.74 1.72
BNS 1.73 1.73 1.77 1.79 1.88
RBC 1.73 1.72 1.68 1.64 1.60
BMO 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.75
Average 1.73 1.74 1.74 1.74 1.76


GBP optimism surged during early Q1, as Sterling proved to be the top performing major versus the USD in the first two months of the year. Gains were predicated upon a rapid vaccination rollout, supporting expectations for a consumer led rebound in economic growth. With consumer activity likely to exceed what is generally anticipated, Sterling should hold its ground against most majors over the second quarter.

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