USD/CAD Outlook

After a weak end to 2023, the USD has become the best-performing currency this year, bolstered by the January US Fed meeting and a strong jobs report, making a March interest rate cut unlikely. The Fed is moving towards cutting rates, likely starting in July, which could further boost the USD in the short term.

The Canadian dollar is losing its late 2023 gains and may keep falling in Q1 as rate expectations are adjusted. The Bank of Canada hinted at upcoming rate cuts in January, despite inflation worries. With the USD strengthening, Canada's slowing economy, and the likelihood of easing monetary policy, the Canadian dollar is under pressure. Despite global tensions, oil prices haven't changed much. Rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, expected before the Fed's, could push the Canadian dollar to 1.38 in a risk-off scenario with the USD rising. 

The Expected trading range for USD/CAD is 1.3350 to 1.3650.

 

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar Forecasts - February 2024
 

BankTrendFeb 05, 2024 (Spot)Q1 2024 (forecast)Q2 2024 (forecast)Q3 2024 (forecast)Q4 2024 (forecast)
BMO1.351.341.341.331.32
CIBC1.351.381.371.351.35
Desjardins1.351.371.371.351.33
NBC1.351.411.451.421.38
RBC1.351.341.361.331.31
Average1.351.371.381.361.34

 

EUR/CAD Outlook

Despite the European Central Bank's commitment to maintaining its current monetary policy stance until inflation moderates, market views differ due to weakening inflation expectations and sluggish growth. Risks for Europe and the EUR include Middle East conflicts, Red Sea shipping issues, China's economic and trade shifts away from the Eurozone, a downturn in European manufacturing and US Fed policy. A potential rate cut in April might push the Euro towards 1.40 in Q2.

The Expected trading range for EUR/CAD is 1.4450 to 1.4650.

 

Euro / Canadian Dollar Forecasts - February 2024
 

BankTrendFeb 05, 2024 (Spot)Q1 2024 (forecast)Q2 2024 (forecast)Q3 2024 (forecast)Q4 2024 (forecast)
BMO1.451.461.471.471.48
CIBC1.451.481.501.501.51
Desjardins1.451.481.491.491.49
NBC1.451.481.481.481.48
RBC1.451.451.441.411.41
Average1.451.471.481.471.47

 

GBP/CAD Outlook

In January, the GBP continued to outshine most G10 currencies. The Bank of England's early February meeting signaled a move towards neutrality, stepping back from a rate hike inclination. Governor Bailey highlighted a shift from setting restrictions to considering their duration. The BoE is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach due to uneven wage growth and possible fiscal loosening in March.  Easing isn't expected until August, despite higher rates potentially supporting GBP. However, sentiment may be impacted by rising electoral risk and macro economic factors.

The Expected trading range for GBP/CAD is 1.6850 to 1.7250.

 

British Pound / Canadian Dollar Forecasts - February 2024
 

BankTrendFeb 05, 2024 (Spot)Q1 2024 (forecast)Q2 2024 (forecast)Q3 2024 (forecast)Q4 2024 (forecast)
BMO1.701.701.701.701.69
CIBC1.701.731.751.731.74
Desjardins1.701.711.741.731.73
NBC1.701.721.731.701.68
RBC1.701.701.701.641.63
Average1.701.711.721.701.69
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