A blockbuster CPI number this morning will drive the USD higher
USD - US Dollar
The dollar continues to trade well following the move higher in US yields, albeit at a snail’s pace. The change in tone from several Fed speakers and the high payrolls print suggests that there is a continued risk for the greenback to extend gains even further against most of G10FX. Today’s CPI print will drive direction for the day. A blockbuster print is likely to support the greenback even more over the coming days.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
With oil prices rallying yesterday by over 3%, the CAD outperformed most of its peers and once again rejected the 1.2580/1.2610 level. The rally in CAD was impressive, compared to other Petro currencies and reinforces the view that a healthy U.S. economy will ultimately be good for Canada. There isn’t much going on domestically today so the CAD will trade on broader market themes. The direction of the USD/CAD will be determined by the U.S. inflation data print this morning.
EUR - Euro
The EUR continues to remain weak and is down for a seventh consecutive down session towards the 1.17 level with divergent central bank expectations weighing on the currency. The Fed is soon expected to announce the start of tapering and the BoE may continue to tee up rate hikes for mid-2022 while the ECB stays on the sidelines—despite the occasional hawk calling for tighter policy. Most expect downward pressure to continue for the EUR this week with little on the home calendar to prop it up while US CPI and Fed speakers act against the shared currency.
GBP - British Pound
Another quiet overnight session with little to talk about for the GBP. A couple of offsetting headlines for the COVID outlook with the UK set to announce a big deal for more Pfizer vaccines while scientists have doubts on herd immunity against the Delta variant given how the recent fall in case numbers is slowing. Certainly, the next test will be schools going back and moving into colder months but this is quite far out and not something that will affect the GBP or concern the BoE in the short term. Short-term support is located at 1.3770 while resistance is located at 1.3950.
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