Sticky Registration Sticky Customer Support

Weekly Currency Update

Get access to our expert weekly market analysis and discover and track your currency pair using our exchange rate tools.

USD/CAD Likely Capped At 1.32 In The Short Term

USD/CAD Likely Capped At 1.32 In The Short Term

  • The CAD's recovery was interrupted by a disappointing Canadian jobs report for August, which showed a 39.7k decline in employment, driven by a loss of 77.2k full-time jobs. Compared to the forecasted reading of 5.0%, the jobless rate increased to 5.4% but growth in hourly pay increased to 5.6. We believe that the hot wage growth print is the key aspect of the data prints in light of the Bank of Canada's most recent rate rise (+75bps, in line with expectations) and policymakers' obvious focus on still developing inflation pressures and heightened inflation expectations. Senior Deputy Governor Rogers noted after the policy decision last Wednesday that there were preliminary indications that the domestic economy was responding to higher interest rates, but that the economy was still in an excess demand situation and that the Bank was still "a long way from where we need to be" in terms of policy. The statistics should, if anything, increase anticipation that, after front-loading rate tightening, the Bank can switch to 50 bps rises starting in October.

CAD weakness likely capped

  • It's yet unclear how the current outlook will help the CAD. Fair value models continue to indicate that there are upside risks for USD/CAD, and the short-term movement of CAD is still primarily influenced by the current risk environment. Despite the BoC's aggressive tightening course, which has resulted in Canada having the highest policy rate in the developed world, it is still difficult for the CAD to separate from the larger pull of risk appetite and the overall tone of the USD. The USD gains toward the 1.32 area should continue to be at the upper end of the current trading range, at the very least, and the CAD should be able to retain recent ranges against the USD.

The week ahead

  • This week, there aren't many data releases for Canada; on Wednesday, manufacturing sales for July are released, and on Thursday and Friday, respectively, are existing home sales and housing starts. Additionally released on Friday are wholesale trade and international securities transactions figures for July. US data reports may help shape the rate narrative ahead of the FOMC decision on Sep 21st- in particular, the CPI (on Tuesday) and PPI statistics. Note that the consensus expects core inflation to increase (6.1% y/y, from 5.9%), but the headline CPI to decline (8.1% y/y, from 8.5%). Manufacturing surveys for September (NY and Philly Fed) and August industrial production figures are being released on Thursday. The week is concluded by preliminary U. Michigan Sentiment data from September and July TIC flows.

This week’s trading range

  • Technically, most expect the CAD to remain capped at around 1.32 with support located 1.2850/1.29 area.

Currency Chart

Get access to our market experts and sign up to receive the latest updates on any currency with our real-time exchange rate reports.

Sign up to receive the latest market news from our experts.

Daily Currency Updates
Daily Market Analysis
Get daily intelligence and currency reports directly to your inbox.
Weekly FX Technical Analysis
Weekly Technical Analysis
Get our weekly technical analysis providing valuable insights.
Monthly Currency Outlook
Monthly Currency Outlook
Receive our monthly currency report and help improve your forecasts.

By entering your email address you agree to the MTFX Terms Of Use and MTFX Privacy Policy and agree and agree to receive sales and marketing communications. Unsubscribe at anytime.


Individuals and businesses who need to send money in foreign currency internationally can use MTFX’s services. The beneficiary of the transfer must have a bank account for the funds to be paid into. Personal clients usually use our services to transfer money between their own accounts in two different countries. Business clients usually use our services to transfer funds to suppliers, fund international operations, or repatriate overseas earnings.
MTFX offers currency exchange rates that are 2-5% better than those offered by the banks. Personal clients usually save hundreds of dollars per transfer and for larger transfers, the savings can run into the thousands. We also offer excellent customer service, dedicated currency specialists, and a 24/7 online platform with best-in-class technology that allows you to complete transfers from any device virtually anywhere in the world. Business customers save with better currency exchange rates and proven solutions geared towards managing and mitigating foreign exchange risk. Our solutions include forward contracts, market orders, rate alert services, and much more - all backed by great technology and great people.
Funds can be transferred via wire transfer, Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT), or ACH payment services. MTFX maintains bank accounts in all major currencies with highly-rated banks. Our banking infrastructure ensures that you can transfer funds to us quickly and securely.
Our global network of banking partners allows us to get funds to virtually anywhere in the world quickly and efficiently. Most wire transfers from MTFX will be received by your beneficiary within 24-48 hours. MTFX also offers same-day transfers that are almost instantaneous, as well as low-cost in-country payment services for your less urgent transfers. For further information please speak to one of our currency specialists.