Canadian Bank Exchange Rate Forecasts for USD/CAD, EUR/CAD & GBP/CAD
Stay informed with the latest FX forecasts from Canada’s top financial institutions. This page brings you updated USD to CAD forecast, EUR to CAD forecast and GBP to CAD forecast every month. Whether you're managing international business payments, converting funds for global investments, or simply tracking currency movements, these FX forecasts provide valuable guidance.
The Canadian dollar forecast from multiple banks helps you assess the Canadian dollar trend. Will the Canadian dollar go up or struggle to find demand? All your questions answered based on market trends, historical performance and current global conditions. Use this data to identify potential currency risks, unlock better timing for your transfers and optimize your foreign exchange strategy.
Canadian Dollar Forecast - August 2025
The Canadian dollar faces short-term downside risks from weak domestic data and trade headwinds, but long-term forecasts point to CAD appreciation against USD, steady EUR strength, and a resilient GBP.
Quick Forecast Snapshot
| Pair | Current Range | 2025 Year-End Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | 1.36 – 1.38 | ~1.35 |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 – 1.61 | ~1.61 |
| GBP/CAD | 1.85 – 1.90 | ~1.85 |
USD/CAD Forecast - August 2025
The US dollar (USD) has resumed its downward trend against the Canadian dollar (CAD) after a brief bounce in late July, pressured by soft US labour market data and rising expectations of Fed easing. That said, with US tariffs averaging 18%, inflation could stay stickier than expected, potentially limiting the pace of rate cuts and offering short-term support for the greenback. Washington’s nomination of Stephen Miran, a vocal proponent of a weaker dollar, to the Federal Reserve Board underscores a long-term policy bias toward depreciation.
- Trend: USD/CAD slipped below 1.36 in July before rebounding toward 1.38 in August.
- Labour Data Impact: Canada lost over 40,000 jobs last month, adding downside pressure to the loonie.
- Bank Forecasts: Major Canadian banks expect USD/CAD to trend lower to ~1.35 by year-end 2025 and ~1.33 in 2026, signalling longer-term CAD strength.
1. Sticky US Inflation: Elevated tariffs could keep inflation higher, forcing the Fed to delay cuts and giving the USD temporary strength.
2. Canadian Labour Weakness: Further job losses could weigh on CAD and push USD/CAD above 1.38.
3. Commodity Price Shocks: Falling oil prices would weaken the loonie, lifting USD/CAD.
4. Global Risk-Off Sentiment: Safe-haven flows into the USD could offset bearish fundamentals.
The USD/CAD forecast for August 2025 suggests near-term volatility with upside risks, but the longer-term trajectory still points toward a stronger loonie as bank forecasts converge on 1.33 by 2026.
USD/CAD Forecasts - August 2025
| Bank | Aug 18, 2025 Spot | Q3 2025 (forecast) | Q4 2025 (forecast) | Q1 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| NBC | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| Desj. | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| RBC | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| TD | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| Average | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
EUR/CAD Forecast - August 2025
The euro (EUR) remains steady near 1.61 against the Canadian dollar (CAD), supported by the European Central Bank’s firmer stance on inflation compared to the more dovish Bank of Canada. Despite Canada’s weak labour market and commodity-driven economy, EUR/CAD has been contained in a narrow 1.59–1.61 band.
- ECB Policy: The ECB’s tighter monetary policy contrasts with Canada’s easing bias, keeping the euro supported.
- CAD Outlook: Weaker Canadian data and trade frictions are weighing on sentiment.
- Bank Forecasts: Canadian banks project EUR/CAD to hold near 1.60 into 2025, drifting higher toward 1.62–1.63 by early 2026.
1. ECB Policy Shift: If the ECB signals earlier cuts, euro momentum may fade.
2. Commodity Rebound: Rising oil prices would strengthen CAD, pushing EUR/CAD lower.
3. BoC Surprises: If the Bank of Canada delays easing, CAD could gain back lost ground.
4. Eurozone Growth Risks: Weak European data could cap EUR upside despite policy divergence.
The EUR/CAD forecast for August 2025 points to a steady-to-stronger euro, but risks remain balanced, with Canadian fundamentals and ECB credibility as key swing factors into 2026.
EUR/CAD Dollar Forecasts - August 2025
| Bank | Aug 18, 2025 Spot | Q3 2025 (forecast) | Q4 2025 (forecast) | Q1 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 1.59 |
| NBC | 1.61 | 1.60 | 1.59 | 1.60 |
| Desj. | 1.61 | 1.60 | 1.59 | 1.59 |
| RBC | 1.62 | 1.59 | 1.60 | 1.62 |
| TD | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Average | 1.61 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.61 |
GBP/CAD Forecast - August 2025
The British pound (GBP) is trading in the 1.85–1.90 range against the Canadian dollar (CAD), supported by the Bank of England’s cautious stance. A modest 25 bps rate cut keeps yields high relative to Canada, while sticky UK inflation at ~3.7% limits the scope for further easing.
1. Commodity Rebound: Higher oil prices could strengthen CAD, driving GBP/CAD lower.
2. UK Disinflation: A faster-than-expected drop in UK inflation could spark deeper BoE cuts.
3. Risk Sentiment Shifts: Global shocks could weaken sterling more than CAD.
4. Trade Dynamics: Improved US–Canada trade flows could lift CAD fundamentals.
The GBP/CAD forecast for August 2025 points to sterling resilience near the upper end of its range, but risk factors such as a commodity rebound or UK disinflation could limit gains.
GBP/CAD Dollar Forecasts - August 2025
| Bank | Aug 18, 2025 Spot | Q3 2025 (forecast) | Q4 2025 (forecast) | Q1 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO | 1.86 | 1.84 | 1.82 | 1.82 |
| NBC | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Desj. | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.84 | 1.84 |
| RBC | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.88 |
| TD | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.90 |
| Average | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 |
