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Canadian Dollar Forecast, August 2020

USD/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month August 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2020
CIBC 1.34 1.34 1.37 1.38 1.37
TD 1.34 1.33 1.37 1.36 1.35
BNS 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.32 1.30
RBC 1.34 1.33 1.37 1.40 1.38
BMO 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.34 1.33
Average 1.34 1.34 1.36 1.36 1.35

Summary

The loonie received a lift alongside other majors versus the greenback in the past month, helped by firmer crude prices. But the CAD has under performed others like the euro, and the rally is now running on empty. The strength in CAD appears set to reverse in short order as relatively weak fundamentals are revealed, and the global economic recovery stalls. Most forecast the USD/CAD ending the third quarter in the 1.35-1.37 range.

EUR/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month August 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2020
CIBC 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.60 1.59
TD 1.58 1.56 1.59 1.57 1.56
BNS 1.58 1.55 1.58 1.56 1.57
RBC 1.58 1.56 1.57 1.60 1.58
BMO 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.59 1.60
Average 1.58 1.56 1.57 1.58 1.58

Summary

Last month, the combination of a plan advocating joint debt issuance, German fiscal expansion and the extension of the ECB PEPP program underlined our bias towards further euro gains. But, we have now seen five straight weeks of EUR appreciation, the longest such stretch since February 2018. Most see that the euro will likely give back some of its recent gains in the upcoming quarter while retaining a longer-term target of around 1.60 against the CAD.

GBP/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month August 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2020
CIBC 1.76 1.74 1.69 1.74 1.75
TD 1.76 1.76 1.72 1.74 1.74
BNS 1.76 1.75 1.71 1.70 1.69
RBC 1.76 1.76 1.71 1.71 1.66
BMO 1.76 1.74 1.73 1.74 1.73
Average 1.76 1.74 1.71 1.73 1.71

Summary

Recent data from the consumer sector and forward looking survey evidence provided some validation for BoE’s Andy Haldane’s call for a “V”-shaped recovery. A near-14% advance in headline monthly retail sales volumes has helped drive the annual rate back into positive territory for the first time since February. However, the countdown to Brexit still looms…expect some significant volatility as discussions progress.

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