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Canadian Dollar Forecast, November 2020

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USD/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (acutal) Nov. 2020 (forecast) YE 2020 (forecast) Q1 2021 (forecast) Q2 2021 (forecast)
CIBC ⇘ 1.33 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.33
TD ⇗ 1.33 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.29
BNS ⇗ 1.33 1.31 1.30 1.30 1.28
RBC ⇘ 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.35 1.35
BMO ⇒ 1.33 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.31
Average ⇒ 1.33 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31

Summary

The jobs market kept showing positive signs in Canada with the unemployment rate falling below the 9% mark and 86k jobs added in October despite new spikes in Covid-19 cases. This should keep expectations for more stimulus by the Bank of Canada low after the Bank announced last week that bond purchases will shift to longer maturities. CAD will therefore be still primarily driven by global factors next week: barring a risk-correction after this week’s rally and more USD weakness can now easily push USD/CAD below the 1.3000 mark.

EUR/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (acutal) Nov. 2020 (forecast) YE 2020 (forecast) Q1 2021 (forecast) Q2 2021 (forecast)
CIBC ⇘ 1.56 1.54 1.53 1.56 1.57
TD ⇒ 1.56 1.56 1.54 1.54 1.56
BNS ⇗ 1.56 1.56 1.53 1.56 1.54
RBC ⇘ 1.56 1.56 1.58 1.62 1.62
BMO ⇒ 1.56 1.54 1.54 1.53 1.55
Average ⇘ 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.56 1.57

Summary

EUR has been lifted by the broad-based dollar sell-off. We doubt that EUR/USD is ready to break above 1.20 yet, largely because of the coming downturn in the Eurozone economy as lockdowns bite, but also that the US may also be suffering lockdowns over coming weeks. We are aware, however, that we may be underestimating how quickly investors are ready to price a post-Trump world (more pro-trade) too. Another reason the market may be not too keen to take EUR/USD through 1.20 is a pick-up in ECB rhetoric against a strong EUR.

GBP/CAD Forecast
Bank Trend Last Month (acutal) Nov. 2020 (forecast) YE 2020 (forecast) Q1 2021 (forecast) Q2 2021 (forecast)
CIBC ⇘ 1.73 1.71 1.69 1.71 1.74
TD ⇘ 1.73 1.72 1.69 1.73 1.74
BNS ⇗ 1.73 1.70 1.67 1.69 1.69
RBC ⇒ 1.73 1.69 1.69 1.70 1.69
BMO ⇒ 1.73 1.72 1.70 1.71 1.72
Average ⇒ 1.73 1.71 1.69 1.71 1.72

Summary

The UK EU trade negotiations are getting into the final phase, with the outcome possibly emerging over the next two weeks. We continue to expect an eventual agreement. The GBP/USD risk remains titled to the upside. On the UK data front, we have a labour market data (Tuesday). Given the deteriorating economic outlook we should continue to see signs that unemployment is rising. However, the latest furlough schemes should prevent a rise in the jobless rate to 9-10%. But as was the case over the past months, domestic data should have a limited impact on the GBP price action.

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