5-Bank Canadian Dollar Forecast - February 2026
Written by Michael WattThe Canadian dollar forecast for February 2026 brings together exchange-rate projections from Canada’s major banks to help you time international payments, lock in FX rates, and reduce currency risk. The outlook covers USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, and GBP/CAD, with quarterly projections extending through the end of 2026 to support forward planning and budgeting.
Whether you’re paying overseas suppliers, collecting revenue in foreign currency, funding property or tuition payments, or managing ongoing FX exposure, this forecast helps you make informed, transaction-ready decisions. By understanding where Canadian banks expect the dollar to move, you can choose the right moment to convert, avoid unfavourable swings, and plan international payments with greater cost certainty, protecting margins before funds are sent or received.
Use this forecast as a practical execution tool to decide whether to convert now, set a target rate, or lock in a forward contract for future payments. Instead of reacting to market moves, you stay in control of timing, pricing, and cash flow, reducing FX risk, improving budget accuracy, and lowering the true cost of cross-border payments.
Canadian Dollar Forecast - February 2026
The Canadian dollar enters February 2026 range-bound but supported by a steadier domestic policy backdrop and commodity stability. Canadian bank expectations generally point to short-term consolidation, followed by gradual CAD appreciation later in 2026, assuming inflation remains contained and global risk sentiment stays stable.
- Central bank expectations: markets remain sensitive to any shift in BoC or Fed tone
- Oil and commodities: continued support can help limit CAD downside
- Risk sentiment: global growth fears or equity volatility can lift USD demand
- Trade headlines: policy surprises can create quick spikes in USD/CAD volatility
CAD Forecast Snapshot
| Pair | Near-Term Range | Feb 2026 Bank Average |
|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | 1.35 – 1.39 | Gradually lower (CAD firmer) |
| EUR/CAD | 1.58 – 1.66 | Mild downside into year-end |
| GBP/CAD | 1.82 – 1.90 | Mild downside into year-end |
USD/CAD Forecast - February 2026
Canadian bank forecasts suggest USD/CAD remains choppy in Q1, with the broader base case leaning toward gradual USD/CAD downside through 2026 as policy expectations converge and CAD fundamentals stabilize.
- Rate differentials: shifts in US yield expectations can reprice quickly
- Risk-off spikes: global uncertainty often strengthens the USD temporarily
- Canada’s trade sensitivity: headline-driven volatility remains a feature
If you have USD payments coming up, consider rate alerts and staggered conversions and for large amounts, explore forward contracts to reduce timing risk.
USD/CAD Forecasts - February 2026
| Bank | Feb 2026 | Q1 2026 (forecast) | Q2 2026 (forecast) | Q3 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.35 |
| CIBC | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.35 |
| Desj. | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| TD | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| BMO | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.35 |
| Average | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.35 |
EUR/CAD Forecast - February 2026
EUR/CAD often reflects both the EUR/USD direction and the CAD strength. Canadian bank views imply a mixed first half of 2026, with a gentle lean toward lower EUR/CAD into year-end as CAD improves. Where a bank does not publish EUR/CAD directly, cross-rates may be derived from that bank’s EUR/USD and USD/CAD projections for consistency.
If you’re funding euro invoices or European property costs, consider target rates and split conversions to reduce the risk of short-term spikes.
EUR/CAD Forecasts - February 2026
| Bank | Feb 2026 | Q1 2026 (forecast) | Q2 2026 (forecast) | Q3 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC | 1.61 | 1.60 | 1.59 | 1.58 |
| CIBC | 1.60 | 1.64 | 1.66 | 1.63 |
| Desj. | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.58 | 1.57 |
| TD | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.64 | 1.63 |
| BMO | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.61 |
| Average | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.60 |
GBP/CAD Forecast - February 2026
GBP/CAD is driven by UK growth expectations, BoE pricing, and broad risk sentiment. Canadian banks generally expect modest CAD outperformance over time, bringing GBP/CAD slightly lower into late 2026. Where a bank does not publish GBP/CAD directly, cross-rates may be derived from that bank’s GBP/USD and USD/CAD projections.
For tuition, UK suppliers, or property transfers, ask about forwards if your deadline is fixed, especially when cash flow certainty matters more than perfect timing.
GBP/CAD Forecasts - February 2026
| Bank | Feb 2026 | Q1 2026 (forecast) | Q2 2026 (forecast) | Q3 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.82 | 1.81 |
| CIBC | 1.85 | 1.86 | 1.89 | 1.88 |
| Desj. | 1.84 | 1.82 | 1.81 | 1.80 |
| TD | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 1.89 |
| BMO | 1.84 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 1.82 |
| Average | 1.85 | 1.84 | 1.85 | 1.84 |
Written by
Michael Watt
Foreign Exchange SpecialistMichael Watt is a Senior Corporate FX Specialist at MTFX, supporting Canadian businesses with strategic foreign exchange solutions and efficient cross-border payment workflows. With extensive experience in global financial services and client advisory roles, he helps companies improve international payment efficiency, reduce FX costs, and navigate currency market volatility. Michael brings a strong background in relationship management, business development, and international finance.
