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Zero-sum game

USD: Investors continue to reassess the risk of stricter containment measures against the optimistic prospects of a vaccine. This dichotomy may prove to be a zero-sum game for markets at the moment and we could see risk sentiment face further stabilization as we head into Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US (equity and bond markets are shut). Also, at the end of the week, Black Friday sales figures will be closely watched to track any hint of resilience in consumer spending despite the pandemic. Hardly any catalysts will be offered from the US data calendar, with PMIs on Monday and a bunch of releases of Wednesday all unlikely to have major implications for markets. All in all, we expect the dollar to stay on a stable path this week, but we retain a clear USD dovish bias in the longer term.

CAD: The loonie has been on a stable appreciating trend in the second half of last week, as the loonie is enjoying a stabilization in oil prices and a still positive domestic data story (good retail sales figures today being a case in point). This week, we won’t see much on the domestic data front, so global developments and oil will likely remain the only drivers of CAD. USD/CAD may test the key 1.3000 support over the next few days.

EUR: Wider implications for the EUR should come from the EU-UK trade negotiations. We are not inclined to think a deal will be agreed already next week but the news flow is set to intensify and would likely spill-over onto the EUR. Data-wise, Today’s PMI will be in focus. Grim PMIs could cause the EUR to start the week on the back foot, although the impact should be short-lived considering investors have largely factored in the EZ growth de-rating and improving vaccine prospects are keeping investors upbeat on a sustained recovery.

GBP: The waiting game for the UK-EU trade deal continues. With the progress being slow and the negotiations to extend into early December, this suggests limited catalysts for GBP gains this week. EUR/GBP should thus remain flat and GBP/USD is to continue to be primarily driven by EUR/USD. Given our neutral outlook on the latter, it also means a neutral outlook on the former and GBP/USD to stay range bound this week. For the very near-term, the lack of conclusions from the ongoing UK-EU negotiations suggest a lack of meaningful moves in GBP/USD at this point.

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