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Will the USD react to better-than-expected jobs data?

USD: Today sees the release of the June ADP employment numbers, where a 600k increase is expected. Last month, a 978k increase did not prove a particularly accurate predictor for the NFP figure (+559k), but we suspect the market will be on edge over any strength in the US labour market which would encourage Fed hawkishness. After all, US money markets have barely given back any of the sharp adjustments made in the second half of June. US equities have actually out-performed over the last one and three months, suggesting some dollar selling could come through - yet these flows are notoriously hard to predict.

CAD: Canada sees the release of April growth figures today. Poor numbers may be overlooked by investors as activity was heavily impacted by Covid-19 restrictions. The fast vaccination roll-out in Canada has, since April, helped the economic picture improve and suggests the data flow may provide more support to CAD in the summer months.

EUR: Very strong Eurozone economic confidence readings have provided little support to EUR/USD so far. The missing link is a central bank ready to dial in dovishness - and there are no signs of that from the ECB so far. Yesterday's German inflation data and today's Eurozone June CPI data (expected to soften to 1.9% from 2.0%) are unlikely to change that position. Indeed, we suspect investors may take advantage of any EUR/USD dip to the 1.1835/1850 area to position for a higher EUR/USD in late Summer.

GBP: The sharp growth in UK house prices, now up 13% YoY seem to be supporting the very bullish pricing of the BoE cycle. The first 10bp hike is now priced for May 2022. Those expectations may be supported today in a speech at 13CET from outgoing hawk Andy Haldane. While the speech will focus on BoE communication over the last 30 years, he may also want to repeat his call that the BoE's QE programme be curtailed in August. This would leave the Asset Purchase Facility at £825 versus a current year-end target of £875bn.

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