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Daily Currency Update

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USD remains soft in quiet markets

USD: With a calm day on the global date front ahead, plenty of good news priced in and concerns about rising cases in the US and the impact on the economy over the winter months, risk assets should remain muted today. But this should be seen as a pause for breath and we look for more upside ahead as the 2021 economic outlook looks benign. Coupled with the behind-the-curve Fed, USD rebounds should be short-lived and shallow.

CAD: Economists forecast a 0.3% m/m rise in headline CPI in October, which would leave the annual rate steady at +0.5. The BoC’s three core measures have held up very well during the pandemic (average of 1.73% in September) alongside sizable federal fiscal supports that have been extended into 2021. We see the core measures falling over time but anticipate little change in October itself. USD/CAD features support at 1.3064 and 1.3042, with resistance at 1.3110 and 1.3129.

EUR: While ECB President Lagarde pointed out yesterday that the vaccine is not a game changer for the ECB economic forecast (hence more easing needed), at the same time ECB officials have been trying to play down expectations on the size of the new package, emphasising the forward guidance and their willingness to do more rather than the actual ‘’number’’ to be announced next month. The ECB is seemingly trying to avoid the Sep 2019 experience, where high market expectations ahead of the meeting caused a muted reaction to rather aggressive measures announced (rate cut and restart of QE).

GBP: GBP/USD is set to firmly remain in the 1.3250-1.3350 range today and for the reminder of the week, with agreement on the UK-EU trade deal needed to push the pair back below the 1.3350 level.

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