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USD edging higher post debate; CA July GDP

As we go to press, USD is edging slightly higher after the Trump-Biden debate. Although US equity futures gained towards the end of the debate, US equity futures are now close to flat and Asian equities are mixed. Based on betting markets (Betfair), the probability assigned to a Republican victory has fallen about 2-3pp following the debate (R: ~40.5%, D: 59.5%). The next presidential debates are on October 15 & 22 and the VP debate is scheduled for October 7.

In China, the official mfg. & non-mfg. PMIs and the Caixinmfg. PMI remained in expansionary territory. In the UK, the Internal Market Bill passed in the House of Commons (as had been expected), with 340 votes for and 256 votes against – the bill now moves to the House of Lords. In other news, interim results for a Phase 1 study of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine in older adults were published, with Moderna’s Chief Medical Officer noting that the results show the vaccine “can generate neutralizing antibodies in older and elderly adults at levels comparable to those in younger adults.”

CAD: Economists forecast a 3%m/m rise for July GDP, in line with StatsCan’s estimate from almost a month ago. The sales indicators have been mostly consistent with prior expectations, including about 4% sequential gains seen for manufacturing and wholesale trade GDP components. On the downside, indications are that oil and gas output fell in July. A 3% monthly GDP gain would put Q3 GDP tracking slightly above our economists’ 40% annualized forecast (8.8% q/q) for the quarter. Technically, USD/CAD must clear resistance at 1.3399 in order to sustain the current corrective phase and open up 1.3460 thereafter, with support at 1.3353 and 1.3295.

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