USD Continues Weakening Momentum Against Peer Currencies
USD: Developments on the US fiscal front remain a major driver of short-term market sentiment: after the disappointing jobs data last week markets have raised their expectations around a robust stimulus package in the US and the risk rally may keep relying on such expectations being met as more details on the relief plan are discussed in the coming days. From an FX perspective, this should continue to endorse both the reflationary story and the low US real-rate narrative (as inflation expectations remain supported while short-term yields are capped). The combination of the two suggests the USD bearish argument remains valid. The calendar today is very quiet, with only one Federal Reserve speaker (James Bullard) making remarks on monetary policy. We doubt there will be any deviation from the cautious stance seen in recent Fed communication, so the FX impact should be negligible. Commodity currencies look more likely to keep benefiting from some dollar weakness at this stage, also thanks to good crude and commodities momentum.
CAD: Is seeing no clear support from continuing gains in crude oil prices or equities while hanging on to most of its gains on the back of a weak US jobs print. At play in slowing the CAD’s gains through early-2021 is the slow roll-out of vaccinations at home amid delivery and operational challenges may continue to drag on the currency over the next few weeks, at least. Still, the broader downtrend in USDCAD since March remains fairly intact and may extend a bit more as the CAD catches up to gains in commodities and on the additional support of rising yields with the BoC expected to soon discuss a phase-out of its bond purchases programme. There is nothing of note on the Canadian calendar for the remainder of the week.
EUR: EUR/USD has been helped by the general dollar weakness and looks likely to test the 1.2100 level today. That said, barring some improvements on the vaccination front in the EU this week and some possible signs of easing virus restrictions/better contagion numbers, the EUR should struggle to be a key outperformer in G10. In the eurozone, the calendar is also very quiet today after some good export data out of Germany this morning.
GBP: The downtrend has paused although the lingering divergence in the speed of vaccinations between the UK and EZ continue to remain pronounced. It is a quiet week for the GBP until Friday’s Q4 GDP report which should also have little impact on the currency with markets already focused on the post-lockdowns recovery.
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