USD: News of very high efficacy rates on a second vaccine has helped maintain benign conditions in global markets, with equities continuing to nudge to new highs (and Tesla’s S&P 500 index inclusion helping too). This is helping to keep the dollar pressured across the board (including USD/JPY) and seeing FX implied volatility levels sink lower. The biggest threat to this scenario is probably some unexpected hard landing in the US economy on the back of second wave lockdowns – a story that has yet to resonate so far (perhaps because of the vaccine backstop?). Look out today for October US retail sales, expected to slow to 0.5% MoM from 1.9% in September. This looks unlikely to dent benign conditions and we favour the greenback to drift higher.
CAD: Following on the heels of Monday’s manufacturing sales data, economists expect September wholesale sales to rise 0.4%. The improvement in risk sentiment has capped rallies in USD/CAD against 1.3170, with support between 1.3042/58 and resistance at 1.3124.
EUR: EUR/USD remains well supported, buoyed by global optimism. Given the challenges Europe faces – in the middle of a second lockdown – EUR certainly won’t lead the rally against the USD, but we think the dollar decline is broad enough to drag EUR/USD back to 1.1920.
GBP: Press reports today suggest there could be a trade deal within a week. GBP seems a little tired of the stop-start nature of this news, but we would back Cable on the soft dollar story and favour a rally back to recent highs at 1.3310.
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