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US stimulus talks enough to cap the dollar

USD: US stimulus hopes continue to offer support to risk assets, but G10 currencies are showing very contained volatility at the moment, likely taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the very busy second half of the week: Brexit deal/no-deal, EU summit, ECB meeting. In the US today all eyes will be on further developments in bipartisan talks on fiscal stimulus. Secretary Mnuchin presented Nancy Pelosi with a $916 bn proposal, but the cool reaction from the Democrat side has kept suggesting more talks are surely needed. Still, the proactiveness shown by the parties involved is proving enough to keep markets upbeat, and this should keep limiting the ability of the dollar to recover. No data releases worth highlighting today in the US calendar.

EUR: EUR/USD has found some consolidation above the 1.2100 mark, and may remain in a holding stance before the event-packed Tuesday, unless some material developments in Brexit talks spill over into the EUR.

GBP: Today, Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen will meet over dinner in Brussels to try and revamp hopes of a UK-EU trade deal after latest comments by both parts’ officials highlighted lingering divergences on some key points (above all, the level playing field). What has however been seen as a positive development was the decision by the UK government to withdraw the lawbreaking clauses from the Internal Market Bill yesterday. Gauging how much the recent downbeat comments are part of negotiating tactics or truly indicate a widening gap between the two parties remains hard to guess. What is sure is that there is hardly any time left for more talks and markets will likely require some positive news from Brussels today to retain their optimistic stance on a deal. Sterling remains highly exposed to the downside if the prospect of no deal becomes even more realistic.

CAD: Since its 5 Nov BoC meeting Canada has recorded strong employment gains and signs of a recovery in inflation which have offset the quite grim September GDP numbers. Also, oil is up by some 20% and vaccine hopes have started to materialize in major economies. This means that the BoC has no tangible reason to add stimulus in the foreseeable future and we expect the Bank to keep rates and other policy tools unchanged today. If anything, the broadly positive developments could warrant a more hawkish rhetoric, but we think Governor Macklem will keep erring on the side of caution and leave the door open for more easing if needed, considering the still uncertain path for recovery as the contagion picture remains concerning. We expect a contained and short-lived impact on CAD, which will stay primarily driven by external factors

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