Markets are forecasting a healthy +900k increase in the July NFP report. Driving that should be the end of extra unemployment insurance benefits in 25 US states, which should increase the supply of labour. This trend should only increase as the year progresses - especially when children return to school in September.
Following Fed's Clarida comments on Wednesday that the US economy would likely meet conditions to justify interest rate tightening by the end of 2022, a strong US jobs number today should see the US money market rates continue to work their way back to the highs seen in early July. DXY could push back to the 92.65 or even 92.85 area today.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
The CAD was tracking a little higher early this morning, lifted by gains in crude oil and the broader bid for risk. The CAD remains well below fair market valuations of about 1.18/1.19. Most think the CAD is still liable to pick up support on modest softness but the scope for significant gains versus a strengthening USD is looking constrained over the balance of the year. Today’s employment data will be key to short-term valuation.
EUR - Euro
The ECB similar to what the Fed did last September, has created a framework where better activity data can keep real interest rates deeply negative. This is currently being accentuated in EUR/GBP where tightening cycles are underway. Until the ECB starts to express comfort with the inflation trajectory, expect the EUR to remain a laggard. EUR/USD could trade back to the 1.1750 area today should NFP come in near our forecasts.
GBP - British Pound
The BoE delivered a slightly hawkish message yesterday, including a conclusion that some modest tightening may be necessary should things go to plan. That may be a small step for the BoE, but it is a giant leap compared to ECB communication. With the BoE's finger now on the trigger - any better UK data could start to see some out-size reaction in GBP as BoE tightening expectations are brought forward from November 22 - when the first full 25bp is priced. For today a strong NFP should drive GBP/USD lower.
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