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Upbeat mood still relying on US stimulus hopes

USD: President Trump’s return to the White House is keeping investor nerves calm despite it not being clear when he will be back to actively campaigning (he showed the intention to participate in the 15 October Presidential debate) and more US officials tested positive for Covid-19 yesterday. Still, in order to keep the good momentum in risk assets going, markets will likely require more indications that the bipartisan stimulus talks are progressing. The data calendar should offer few catalysts today. Some focus will be on Powell’s speech in Chicago, but the quite intense Fedspeak over the past few weeks suggests limited surprise potential. Overall, the dollar outlook in the run-in to the elections remains rather uninspiring.

CAD: Economists forecast an approximately CAD1bn improvement in the trade balance to a CAD1.5bn deficit in August (consensus –CAD2.1bn). USD/CAD closed right on uptrend support at 1.3258 yesterday, with this trendline coming in at 1.3269 today. A daily close below here would effectively end the recent corrective phase, exposing 1.3119 thereafter.

EUR: ECB speakers will be in focus today, with speeches by both President Lagarde and the Chief Economist Philip Lane. Investors will look for some indications that the Bank is moving closer to mounting market expectations around another rate cut. We are more inclined to think the ECB will stick to its current rhetoric for now and this should allow EUR/USD to test 1.1800 as risk sentiment remains a supportive factor for the pair.

GBP: With EU-UK trade talks now in their most crucial phase, GBP may stay in a holding pattern while waiting for any material news. On the technical side, Cable is testing the 1.300 psychological resistance against the euro.

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