Trump's openness to transition put a cap in the dollar
USD: The dollar had a brief rally yesterday after touching multi-month lows, showing some delayed reaction to grim EZ PMIs. Some developments in US politics have also been centre stage. The announcement that former Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been selected by President-elect Biden to lead the Treasury has no clear market implications just yet, also considering her name had been circulating for some weeks. This leaves the other main candidate for the role, Lael Brainard, at the Fed, where she may take the place of Powell in case of a change at the helm of the Bank. While this also remains a question mark for potential market implications, President Trump’s decision to ask Government agencies to ensure a smooth transition (despite pledging to keep contesting the election result) is undoubtedly good news for investors and has been buoying global equities. With risk appetite supported across global markets the dollar’s rebound may struggle to find more steam.
CAD: While the CAD remains well and truly hitched to the broader risk sentiment wagon at the moment, crude prices pushing above $43/bbl to the highest level in 3 months is not hurting the CAD’s cause. The absence of any major data reports this week will leave the CAD still reliant on the broader risk tone, flows and technical signals as key drivers.
EUR: Services PMIs in the eurozone have fallen deeper into contraction territory and some resilience in manufacturing has only partly sweetened the pill for markets. This is hardly surprising considering the recent round of restrictions across the region and today’s IFO survey out of Germany looks unlikely to look much better, with all three key gauges set to have contracted in November. In terms of FX implications, it appears that the bar for a negative surprise on the IFO has been set quite high from yesterday’s grim PMIs, so the impact on EUR may be quite limited and a generalized upbeat market sentiment should at least keep EUR/USD above 1.1800.
GBP: Staying bid in the waiting game The GBP rally has extended, along with rising hopes of a Brexit deal and despite no tangible progress in talks just yet. There have been some reports about a possible “temporary deal” to leave more time for talks in early 2021. GBP’s strength might also be the result of some short-squeezing.
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