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Too early to call for an end to the USD run

USD: Most currencies started finding some respite as US equities showed signs of life yesterday and the dollar faced a correction after a week-long rally. Equity futures point at a positive open which could keep the dollar in check for today and possibly keep activity currencies bid. We still think the Fed’s readiness to intervene if market sentiment falls much further likely puts some limit to the dollar’s ability to recover, but it is hard to exclude further USD rallies at this stage as global risk appetite appears to have shifted to a much more cautious stance. The US calendar today is rather light, with only durable goods orders in focus and some comments by Fed’s Williams.

CAD: A recovery in US equity markets prevented USD/CAD from sustaining a break above resistance at 1.3399 on the first attempt, with support at 1.3272. The CAD will remain at the whim of the broad dollar mood for the next few days with only next Wednesday’s Jul/Aug monthly GDP print possibly acting to differentiate the currency from the pack.

EUR: Europe is now the key hotspot for second contagion waves and markets are likely expecting more restrictions to be imposed soon by some European countries. The EUR may therefore keep lagging most G10 currencies moving into the weekend as investors await more virus-related updates. This morning, ECB’s Villeroy and Hernandez de Cos will speak at an online event, but the calendar shows no more highlights for the rest of the day.

GBP: Chancellor Sunak’s new wage-subsidy plan has likely contributed to keep GBP supported yesterday as Brexit-related sentiment does not appear to have progressed or regressed after a week of negotiations. Sterling’s downside risk still looks quite material as chances of no-deal remain relatively high.

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