Today’s US and CAD jobs data will set the tone for June
USD: It is a big day for market today with the release of the US NFP jobs report for May. A month ago, the sub consensus release for April set the trading tone for May so we’re expecting today’s data to se the tone for June. After yesterday's strong ADP employment release, consensus for today's NFP is probably for a 700-800,000 increase in jobs in May though there are downside risks as as employers continue to struggle to find workers. Regardless of the outcome, the Fed is still likely to remain patient and will not be rushed into a decision on tapering at the FOMC meeting on 16 June.
CAD: Today in Canada will also see the release of May jobs numbers. Consensus is for another negative read (-25k) as containment measures remained strict in May, but most think the balance of risks is skewed towards a positive surprise. The result could provide support to CAD ahead of next week’s BoC policy meeting, although markets don’t expect any tapering announcements at least until July.
EUR: EUR/USD has succumbed to dollar strength after yesterday's better than expected US ADP and ISM numbers. A dip to 1.2050 looks to be the risk today should the NFP surprise on the upside. However, next Thursday's ECB meeting should be interesting and continued dovishness from the ECB might conversely be good for the EUR as it encourages spending an spurs growth in the region.
GBP: Yesterday's positive revision in the UK final composite PMI for May could support the GBP against the USD’s strength. As above, any dollar strength on a strong NFP could knock the GBP back down to the 1.4000/4020 area - where support may hold. The 14 June decisions on whether to fully open up the UK economy should not have a material impact on the GBP outlook. There remains strong momentum behind the economy right now - enough to support the BoE's reasonably bullish set of forecasts and probably maintain expectations that the BoE could tighten before the Fed.
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