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Today’s NFP release won’t have much impact on the greenback

USD: The dollar bear trend has strengthened and broadened this week. In the G10 space, European currencies have broken to the upside. This benign dollar decline is good for world growth, exporting as it does low US rates around the world and allowing the Rest of the World to run looser monetary policy. Propelling the dollar decline as well has been the fall in US real rates (nominal less inflation) where US 10-year inflation expectations, derived through index-linked US Treasuries, have pushed up to 1.87% - the highest since summer 2019. Policy makers can congratulate themselves here and progress on a smaller US fiscal stimulus – the $908bn plan seems to be gaining traction – can cement these trends. Given all this, we doubt today’s November NFP will have much bearing on the dollar. A good number firms up recovery hopes, a bad number could prompt the Fed into fresh easing.

CAD: USDCAD reached a new cycle low yesterday against the USD. Absent any major domestic developments—this week’s mini budget passed more or less unnoticed in the FX markets—the CAD will remain somewhat of a slave to the broader market tone and the general (weak) USD trend. Canada releases its employment data today.

EUR: The threat of easier ECB policy next week has been swamped by the broad dollar trend and is sending EUR/$ higher. News that the EU is preparing to write Poland and Hungary out of the Recovery Fund should help accelerate compromise here – where a deal at the Dec 10-11th EU summit would be welcome news for the EUR. December is typically a soft month for the dollar and EUR/$ could nudge up to 1.2200/2250 ahead of next week’s event risks.

GBP: Reports suggest EU:UK negotiators are in the ‘tunnel’, fishing is still an obstacle and a deal hangs in the balance. Leaders Macron and Johnson are due to meet this weekend, which sets up GBP for a lot of volatility in Asia Monday morning. Negative rate-backers, Saunders & Tenreyo, speak today.

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