USD: The dollar has been surprisingly soft this week, seemingly driven by the on-again-off-again prospect of a fourth fiscal stimulus package and a growing sense that a Biden administration would restore some order to world trade. On the latter point, Donald Trump and Joe Biden face off in a TV debate tonight in Nashville – perhaps the President’s last chance to seriously close the gap in the polls. Also helping to keep the dollar weak has been money pouring into Asian equity markets and the strong decline in the likes of USD/CNY and USD/KRW. With COVID under control in these two large Asian economies, it seems these currency trends look set to continue. Look out today for the weekly US initial jobless claims figures, where any disappointing rise in claims could warn that employment gains have stalled and threaten a negative October NFP release in early November.
CAD: Is holding gains near the 1.3150 area but is off its earlier high and has failed to take fuller advantage of the USD’s broader softness. Economic data surprises have softened over the past month or so, supporting the impression that the Canadian economic recovery is coming off the boil somewhat. We don’t think the data will add too much to the CAD story at the moment as most large economies have made back the “easy” economic gains from the virus slowdown and second wave concerns are becoming more pronounced. Support stands at 1.3099 & resistance at 1.3166
EUR: We’ve seen an impressive performance from EUR/USD this week. The move has coincided with a very successful €17bn launch of EU social bonds – although the buyers were largely European. A stronger story may be Asian FX reserve managers re-cycling newly acquired USD (in an attempt to slow the $/Asia drop) into EUR. Look out for EZ consumer confidence today.
GBP: Has jumped on news that trade talks will resume. However, any deal may not be reached until mid-Nov, allowing plenty of time for volatility to rise. Cable may struggle to break 1.3180 today. BoE’s Haldane & Bailey speak this am.
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