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Today’s focus – Pelosi’s stimulus deadline

As we go to press, USD is up against G10, with dovish comments from the RBA and RBNZ adding to the downside pressure on AUD and NZD. In the US, House Speaker Pelosi’s spokesman tweeted that Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin “continued to narrow their differences” in their Monday phone call. Meanwhile, as of writing, the probability assigned to a Biden victory based on betting markets has eased to ~62% from 66% on Friday.

On the oil front, although news reports cite that the OPEC did not discuss making changes to their plan to increase output at the start of next year in Monday’s virtual meeting, Reuters cited three producers as suggesting that this increase could be reversed if needed.

Day ahead: The main focus will be on any headlines related to pre-election fiscal stimulus in the US and/or Brexit. In the US, House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will speak again, with the end of today as Pelosi’s self-imposed deadline for making progress with the White House on a potential pre-election stimulus package. Meanwhile, the Senate is expected to vote on a standalone bill on more PPP funds. Otherwise, the data calendar is very light, featuring housing starts & building permits in the US.

CAD: A daily close above resistance at 1.3197 would amplify the shaky risk backdrop and open up 1.3259 next on the topside. Support is located at 1.3151 and 1.3117.

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