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Daily Currency Update

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The USD rebound was short lived

USD: An equity correction from historical highs prompted a dollar rebound yesterday, but a strong Asian session and Western stock futures pointing up are back to putting pressure on the greenback. Today, the ISM Manufacturing may edge lower and add to the recent choppy data narrative in the US ahead of Friday’s NFP. Still, market implications should prove quite contained and a round of fresh risk appetite after yesterday’s setback my leave room for more pro-cyclical outperformance and dollar weakness. Oil-sensitive currencies may however struggle to stage solid gains as OPEC+ members delayed their meeting till tomorrow among lingering disagreement on whether to cancel output hikes planned for January.

CAD: The CAD is on a mini tear against the USD, stretching its gains below the 1.30 level and keeping pace with most of its other commodity peers amid strong demand for industrial metals amid signs that China’s economic recovery is solid. USD/CAD tested and held above key double bottom support at 1.2952 yesterday, with resistance coming in at 1.3029 and 1.3052.

EUR: EUR/USD was repelled at the 1.2000 resistance yesterday, but a break above that level appears more a question of when rather than if as the bearish-USD story appears to be consolidating. Today, we have eurozone-wide inflation figures for November which will confirm how new containment measures have generated fresh deflationary pressures, but in a market perspective, this should simply confirm the already cemented view that the ECB will have to expand QE as it recalibrates policy next week. For now, the spillover from Brexit negotiations and any developments on the EU Recovery Fund are the two main factors able to generate some EUR moves.

GBP: Contrasting news about the state of EU-UK trade negotiations generated some swings in sterling yesterday but left it broadly unchanged after markets came to the conclusion that nothing material has yet been decided. So, the waiting game for GBP continues, but we can expect more days of contradicting headlines driving intraday oscillations in GBP. As time goes on, we should see the size of such swings increase as markets attribute a bigger weight to any remarks by both parties’ officials.

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