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Not too sure if the USD can hold on to its gains…

USD: The price action in G10 FX at the start of this week has temporarily with the dollar gaining to the detriment of other currencies. Such a corrective move is not too surprising after the big rebound in the G10 last week, and aided by concerns around the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19. The coming days are set to be increasingly about economic data, but there aren’t any market-moving releases in the US today. The Fed’s Ted Barkin will speak, although the market has likely received enough post-FOMC Fedspeak to consolidate rate expectations. The lack of clear catalysts ahead of a much busier second half of the week suggests volatility may be subdued today. Special attention will be on oil-related currencies as crude prices have been trading on the soft side so far this week: this may be due to some investors positioning for a quite substantial output hike by OPEC+ later this week.

CAD: The CAD continues to track the general trend in the USD and ignore what remains a still very supportive backdrop in terms of yield differentials and commodity prices continue to grind higher from the mid-June low. The CAD continues to diverge significantly from our fair value estimate and while these conditions can persist over time, most think the divergence does suggest limited downside risks for the CAD at the moment.

EUR: With an increasing number of central banks moving to a more hawkish tone, the ECB remains more and more isolated on the ultra-dovish end of the spectrum. Inflation data this week will therefore be watched very closely by the market to gauge whether there are grounds to revive rate expectations. EZ-wide data will be released tomorrow, but German figures due today will already determine the market reaction, if any. Consensus is not expecting any further jump in headline inflation in June, with a German print that could remain stuck around the 2.5% level. The widening gap between the Fed’s and ECB rate expectations is set to put a limit to EUR/USD gains, which should - incidentally - be a more than welcome side effect in Frankfurt.

GBP: Sterling continues to show some resilience to concerning domestic developments. The UK registered the highest number of Covid-19 cases since January due to the fast spreading of the Delta variant across the country, but markets are probably finding some comfort on the fact that thanks to a widely-vaccinated population, hospitalization numbers and deaths are not rising as fast as they did in the previous virus waves. This is allowing both the UK government and the market to stay broadly confident that there will be no re-tightening of virus-containment measures on the back of the new outbreak, and the UK economy can remain on the recovery path without major bumps.

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