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Most expecting a stronger dollar – US inflation on tap

USD - US Dollar

Today’s US inflation numbers for September will likely set the tone in FX. Consensus forecasts suggest headline inflation at 5.3% while expecting the core rate at 4.1% The last seven CPI releases were either inline or above consensus, although only in two instances (in May and July) did the US dollar index strengthen after the release. While this does suggest the dollar has struggled to benefit from higher inflation numbers after the release, we think that the vicinity to the upcoming November FOMC meeting means that inflation read at or above 5.3% will fuel November Fed tapering expectations and ultimately force a move higher in the dollar across the board.

Later today, the Fed will release the minutes of the FOMC policy meeting held on 22 September. The question is how much support had been built at that point for an autumn tapering announcement as well as whether inflation is still mostly seen as transitory. Put together the USD seems poised to rally higher in the coming weeks.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

Even though Oil fell during the session yesterday (albeit a very small move), CAD held onto its recent gains. Direction for the CAD will hinge on whether a positive theme continuing into next week’s slew of data points after Friday’s blockbuster employment data release. Furthermore, any hint of an early hike at the BoC’s meeting on the 27th will certainly increase demand for the loonie and drive the currency higher. No domestic data today, but all eyes will be on the U.S.inflation print, which will likely dictate price action this afternoon. Fair value for USD/CAD continues to remain around the 1.20 level.

EUR - Euro

As a number of hawkish voices within the FOMC have offered markets reasons to keep their hawkish Fed bets on, it’s been quite the opposite with the ECB. Only yesterday, French central bank governor Villeroy added to the recent dovish tone as he argued in favour of some PEPP flexibility to retain some room for additional monetary stimulus in the future. Should US CPI help markets price in a November taper and support the dollar, the 1.1500 support in EUR/USD coming under increasing pressure, as the EUR continues to lack clear catalysts to potentially offset the downward move.

GBP - British Pound

Yesterday, UK’s jobs data for September gave no reasons for markets to scale back their aggressive pricing for Bank of England tightening (15bp are priced in for the December meeting). This morning, some mixed data likely had a neutral impact on rate expectations. August’s monthly GDP growth (0.4% MoM) came in slightly below consensus, while industrial production (0.8% MoM) grew more than expected. There are rising bets on a BoE rate hike this year which should continue to offer a positive underlying narrative to GBP.

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