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Daily Currency Update

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Markets brace for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting

USD: It should be a quiet day for USD today ahead of the April FOMC meeting tomorrow. On the data front, the focus will be on April US Consumer Confidence but this is unlikely to affect sentiment too much ahead of the Fed tomorrow. The US dollar should remain fairly range-bound against G10 currencies today with DXY staying below its 100-day moving average of 91.05.

CAD:  The loonie continues to trade on both sides of the 1.24 level, reflecting the broader tone of the big dollar rather than anything specifically CAD-negative. Mixed risk trends, given soft stocks and firmer commodities, may curb the CAD’s rise in the short run but the terms of trade impact from rising commodity prices remains a powerfully supportive feature of markets. Expect a rangebound trading session ahead of the FOMC tomorrow.

EUR: With a calm day on the data front today and investors bracing for the FOMC tomorrow, EUR/USD should remain range bound today, staying in the 1.2050-1.2100 area.

GBP: Sterling is showing tentative signs of stabilisation after political scandals led a decline late last week. Based on financial fair value models, GBP remains undervalued suggesting some near-term support for sterling unless we see further allegations about the Conservative government. So far, it has been a rather challenging month for GBP, with the currency suffering first from concerns about the pace of the vaccination programme and now by a degree of political uncertainty.

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