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Loonie rangebound ahead of tomorrow’s BoC minutes

USD: Ahead of the busy economic schedule over the coming days, the dollar has started the week on a soft tone, as the markets process the minimum corporate tax proposal agreed by G-7 members over the weekend. A comment by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said that higher rates in the US would be a “plus”, failed to support the dollar, while adding pressure on the US equity segment yesterday. The US data calendar today sees the release of the May NFIB Small Business sentiment survey, which should confirm the trend of unfilled labour demand that may have contributed to the lower headline NFP numbers last week. Trade data will also be in focus, with consensus centred on a decrease in the US trade deficit in April to levels below $70bn from March’s $74bn. The Fed is in the blackout period until next week’s meeting.  Most expect the USD to stay on a mildly depreciating pattern into Thursday’s CPI numbers.

CAD: Weaker commodity prices did not affect the loonie too much.  The USD/CAD remains unchanged after a brief test of the low1.21s. Most analysts are also shrugging off Friday’s Canadian jobs report owing the depressed data to renewed lockdowns across the country. Restrictions are gradually being unwound and June’s jobs print (more so July) should show a strong increase in employment. Tomorrow’s BoC meeting is expected to largely be a non-event as the Bank awaits more post-lockdown data before signaling another reduction in its pace of QE. Commodities remain CAD-supportive, and the USD/CAD should eventually resume its downward trajectory toward a cross of 1.20.

EUR: EUR/USD is set to attempt a move above 1.2200 today as the June ZEW sentiment indicator will be released in Germany. After the quite encouraging reads in May's PMIs and IFO, markets are already factoring in a rise in the main ZEW indicators and while the impact on the EUR should be limited, a strong read should all the same keep an underlying supporting narrative for the pair as we head into the ECB meeting on Thursday. 

GBP: There aren’t really any market-moving data releases this week in the UK, and expectations ahead of the Government’s announcement on 14 June on whether to go ahead with further easing of Covid-19 restrictions on 21 June may remain the main theme to follow.

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