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Daily Currency Update

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Locked and loaded for another edition of US and Canadian job data

USD: We have seen quite a hawkish set of central bank meetings in the EM space this. In the G10 space, those central banks openly discussing normalizing monetary policy have seen their currencies out-perform. Even though the US is at the top of the list of those countries closing output gaps and in theory needing to withdraw loose policy, the Fed's new monetary policy strategy has muddied the waters in this relationship. Indeed, despite a generally positive set of US releases this month, the Fed remains on the sidelines. The big focus today, is the US April NFP. A 1 million increase is expected in the headline figure. Upside surprise will mean that the Fed is making quicker progress, bringing tapering nearer. Most expect the greenback to make a run today.

CAD: The CAD could remain supported especially if market expectations of a fairly aggressive growth rebound in the second half of 2021. That said, we also believe that the recent CAD rally has captured most of these positives already. Despite the recent run, most remain bullish on the CAD outlook but the positive trend does risk hitting a bump in the road today if Canada’s labour market data reflects the softness that should follow on from the renewed lockdown measures imposed last month. Weakness may contrast with a blockbuster jobs report from the US.

EUR: While the EUR certainly finds little support from the monetary normalization narrative stronger Eurozone data, not only from the business side but now from the consumer side too suggests EUR/USD has a window to advance. Most analysts expect the EUR/USD to push through 1.2080/2100 today to retest last week's high at 1.2150.

GBP: There are no indications as yet on Scottish parliamentary elections. This is an event risk that could hold GBP back, but otherwise an optimistic assessment from the BoE yesterday should continue to see GBP supported. The markets will be looking to see if the GBP/USD can test and break 1.40 post NFP today.

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