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Limited USD reversal; BoC decision ahead

Financial markets remain at risk of a further correction as conviction over reflationary trades (long equities, long commodities, short dollar) gets stress tested. News of a pause in one of the leading vaccine contenders has not helped sentiment this week, although the path to a vaccine solution was never going to be a smooth one. From a macro perspective, the V shape consensus also is being tested by the drop in oil this week. Here doubts are emerging about the strength of the rebound in Asian demand, although an OPEC+ response (more cuts) could emerge to support prices over the next week.

The US Congress is still struggling to find common ground on a fourth stimulus package, we would say risk assets remain vulnerable over coming days – even though the Fed has plenty of room to expand QE further should it be necessary.

We continue to be bearish on the dollar into year-end. The highlight of a quiet data calendar today will be the BoC rate meeting. Canada has not been performing that badly this year (13.5% peak to trough drop), but like many other central banks look out for a dovish spin and a call for more fiscal support. We look for a USD/CAD correction to 1.3270/3350.

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