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Daily Currency Update

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It’s hard to bet against the greenback today

USD: The greenback strengthened yesterday after another round of risk off mostly against commodity currencies (and especially those sensitive to oil), with only the safe-haven yen gaining ground. Three main factors have contributed to the risk correction yesterday and are set to remain key threads today: a) the sharp drop in oil prices, b) a weak ISM reading spurring fears of a slower recovery, c) China’s crackdown on tech companies listed abroad.

Most analysts think the market will continue to lack reasons to turn bearish on the dollar for now, especially given the risk of a second round of Fed’s hawkishness spill-over into the market coming from the FOMC minutes. OPEC+ dynamics will dictate the direction for oil-related currencies which may keep struggling today as a whole as sentiment remains unstable.

CAD: What a mess! What started as a small USD rally, turned into a full-scale rout of commodity currencies which further morphed into a risk off event that drove the USD higher. This saw USD/CAD trade from 1.2304 to 1.24945. It remains to be seen if yesterday was a one-off event or whether there is more to come, but the USD/CAD is still trading within a 1.2250/1.2500 range which may not last for too much longer.

EUR: The EUR appears to be mostly a bystander among the swings in the dollar. While being protected from the oil-price volatility, the EUR is lacking drivers at the moment. With the dollar not very likely to invert its bullish trend today – EUR/USD may gain more downside momentum if the psychological 1.1800 support is broken today.

GBP: The UK government’s decision to go ahead with a further easing of restrictions on 19 July has endorsed the market’s relatively relaxed stance towards the recent flare-up in Covid-19 cases in the country, and marginally helped sterling contain the downside stemming from a stronger dollar. Ahead of a speech by Andrew Bailey and some industrial output data on Friday, GBP is left without other domestic drivers, and may follow EUR/USD lower today, making a more decisive move below 1.3800.

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