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ISM numbers and OPEC+ to drive direction today

USD: FX markets started the week on a quiet note as the US and UK markets were closed yesterday for a holiday. The dollar has remained weak as we head into a week where data releases will be back in focus in the US, and that will round off the week with May’s jobs report on Friday. Today, we’ll see the release of May’s Manufacturing ISM, which may continue to edge higher. Most don’t expect data this week to materially change market expectations about the Fed’s policy stance, and the dollar’s momentum may stay soft on the back of a still negative real rate narrative.

CAD: The CAD is little changed and holding near the recent highs against the greenback. Canadian markets will focus on the employment data late in the week, suggesting that early week trends here are likely to remain range bound. Markets are also keeping a close eye on consultations among OPEC+ members around the possibility of hiking oil output again as the global recovery is widely expected to gather more pace in the coming months and stockpiles to be drawn down. Any signs that the cartel may hold output steady for now would likely provide more support to the CAD, while likely pushing inflation expectations higher.

EUR: All eyes today will be on the eurozone’s inflation report for the month of May, which will be the last key data release ahead of the ECB meeting on 10 June. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise to 1.9% YoY and core inflation to 0.9%. The spill-over into the FX market may however be contained after the recent rhetoric by ECB officials tended to exclude any tapering discussion. Germany’s unemployment data will also be watched today, with markets expecting the unemployment rate to have remained at 6.0% in May. EUR/USD is likely to consolidate further within the 1.22-1.23 range.

GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak today at a conference that doesn’t have monetary policy as a main theme. Still, markets will be on the watch for any possible policy comment after the rates market was shaken last week by BoE’s Gertjan Vlieghe comments about a possible hike in 2022. Apart from this, the data calendar is very light in the UK in the coming days, and the GBP should remain mostly driven by expectations about the full reopening of the UK economy by 21 June.

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