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Daily Currency Update

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In darker days the greenback benefits

USD: With the already low probability of a pre-election US fiscal stimulus declining further overnight and the ongoing deterioration of the Covid situation in Europe (accompanied by further restrictions, the latest being the night time curfew in selected French cities, including Paris), the dollar should retain support today. The latter is a segment which is unlikely to do well in the current environment of the Covid related de-rating of the global growth outlook (with the main focus on Europe, at this point) and fragile equity markets. G10 FX has been trading on the soft side vs USD overnight.

CAD: The USD/CAD continues to trade in a narrow range between 1.3150/1.3250. There are no data from Canada today but BoC DG Lane is participating on a panel today but the subject matter is unlikely to be market moving. We look for more range trading in the short run but we also rather think the CAD’s recent improvement against the USD is looking somewhat stretched. Crude oil prices are modestly lower on the day, with WTI settling around the $40 level; the broader commodity complex looks mixed.

EUR: ECB President Lagarde speaks in the IMF conference today, but the message is unlikely to reveal much new about the future ECB set-up. With equity markets trading on the soft side, EUR/USD upside should remain muted. We expect the cross to stay around the 1.1750 level today.

GBP: The self-imposed 15 Oct deadline by the UK government is to be breached today and UK-EU negotiations are, in all probability, set to continue. While not directly admitted by officials on either side, the news-flow suggests that some progress has been made. With the bar for the UK government to walk away from the negotiation table set quite high (particularly after the sharp decline for the Conservative party in polls and clear downside risk to the economy even in the base case of the trade deal scenario), GBP downside should remain limited for now.

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