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Hints of a second de-rating for EU growth

USD: The rise in Covid cases across Europe and the imposition of new restrictions (the latest being the closure of bars and restaurants in Holland and Czech, and increased talk of a lockdown in the UK) has brought investors closer to a second de-rating of European growth. During the first phase of de-rating In September, the market priced out the V shaped recovery. Now, with Covid cases rising across the board and the acknowledgement that the winter will be long and tough, it is more about pricing the odds in the W shape recovery, with the risk of a double dip. This has been reflected in softer currencies and the support for the dollar. That said, the rising odds of a Biden victory and the larger Democratic post-election US fiscal stimulus should also provide some offsetting factors to rising downside risks to currencies. The 2021 outlook for USD therefore still looks negative but coming weeks and months may prove more challenging.

CAD: BoC Deputy Governor Lane will participate in a panel session discussing central bank digital currencies, which has been more of a research focus of late under new Governor Macklem. There will be no published remarks released. USD/CAD features support at 1.3119 and 1.3076, with 1.3161 and 1.3181 serving as resistance.

EUR: The focus is on Aug EZ IP. The YoY number should remain largely unchanged and the MoM reading should see deceleration in growth, but this will be seen as a backward-looking indicator given the recent growing downside risk to the EZ economy, not reflected in today’s data. EUR/USD to hover 1.1750 today.

GBP: While the latest headline news on UK-EU trade negotiations were not overly positive and reports suggest that the EU leaders are to conclude that progress made is still not sufficient, equally this is not negative enough to lead to a breakdown in talks. The direction of travel points to more negotiations beyond the EU summit this week. Given the previous threat from the UK government to walk away by 15 October if no progress / deal is made, this should not be seen as GBP negative and its downside vs EUR should remain limited.

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