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Greenback Starts the Day on the Rise Given the Risk-Off Approach

USD: The trading halt imposed on some highly volatile stocks yesterday by retail platform Robinhood has been a dominant story. The dollar was back on the rise in overnight trading after losing a big chunk of Wednesday’s gains during yesterday’s session. We could see the greenback retain some momentum into the weekend on the back of safe-haven demand: further developments in the Robinhood story will be closely watched in this sense. Still, the recent reiteration by the Fed of its ultra-dovish stance despite an improving outlook leaves the dollar vulnerable in the medium-term as risk sentiment stabilizes. Some US data releases today: December personal spending, PCE, MNI Chicago PMI and housing data) should have a limited market impact.

CAD: Canada will release its November GDP figures, which we expect to come in at 0.2% month-month, slightly below consensus (0.4%). The impact on CAD should be contained considering the outlook has sharply changed after vaccine-related news. CAD may stay under some pressure today in an unsupportive risk environment.

EUR: France’s GDP slump in 4Q turned out to be less severe (-1.3% QoQ) than forecasts. This leaves us more confident for a positive read (0.2% vs consensus 0.0%) in the QoQ figures for Germany, which experienced looser containment measures in the same period than did France. Indications of a more contained 4Q activity slump in the Eurozone may help the EUR weather the current positive dollar momentum better than other G10 currencies. Meanwhile, expect more headlines on Italian politics as the scenario of a technocratic/national unity government appears slightly more likely following the latest developments.

GBP: Sterling is closing the week (and the month of January) being the only G10 currency outperforming the USD. We expect the vaccination advantage of the UK to keep driving GBP lower in the rest of 2021.

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