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Greenback continues to soar ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD - US Dollar

Investors continue to remain defensive as the spread of the Delta variant and restrictions being re-imposed in some countries are pairing with lingering concerns about the impact of China’s regulatory crackdown and geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Such an unstable risk environment naturally supports the dollar, and some mixed US data for July only appeared to add to the bullish sentiment on the greenback. Today, the minutes from the 28 July FOMC meeting could support the bullish sentiment on USD. A special focus will also be on any discussion about the timeline for unwinding QE, especially after some members voiced their expectations for tapering to start already this fall. Any confirmation on this side should cement the view that the Fed will unveil more details of its tapering plan at the 26-28 August Jackson Hole symposium, and ultimately offer yet another supportive narrative for the dollar.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The USD/CAD continues to maintain the 1.26 handle amidst the broad USD rally and feels a little perplexing. The CAD is under-performing amid weakness in high beta FX generally and weaker oil prices specifically. Crude oil is down again and is on its weakest run since March. WTI has dropped some 13.5% plus over the past month, which is hard for the CAD to ignore. Still, no real bias in the loonie here and 1.2590/00 should remain pivotal today ahead of Canadian CPI and Fed Minutes later.

EUR - Euro

The euro likely missed the last chance to be rescued by domestic data this week as yesterday’s decent growth data were largely ignored by the market. Before the 23 August PMIs, there are no clear data drivers in the eurozone, and the dollar’s strength could continue to put pressure on EUR/USD. The 1.1700 level is starting to look fragile and the next key level to watch could be the 1.1600 November 2020 low.

GBP - British Pound

After good jobs data failed to help the pound yesterday, this morning’s below-expectation CPI numbers failed to send the pound much lower. The volatility in inflation numbers in the near term is likely to set to have limited implications for the Bank of England’s policy stance, with policymakers that are mostly focused on price growth dynamics in 2022 to time the unwinding of monetary policy. There are no other data releases in the UK today, and any chance for GBP to turn lower again will likely rely on a material improvement in the global risk sentiment.

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