Greenback Continues to Remain Supported by Positive Data Flow
USD: After the set of strong US data readings during the Easter trading period (NFP on Friday and ISM Services yesterday) the focus today turns to the IMF global growth forecast. The expected upward revision to the IMF global growth forecast is likely to add support to stock markets, where gains paused overnight. While this may add some support to commodity currencies, the near-term upside vs USD.
CAD: Continues to remain supported in quiet trading while bucking the ~2% decline in crude oil prices—which have traded in a relatively narrow range over the past two weeks. Markets will look ahead to Friday’s LFS release after US nonfarm payrolls surprised with a 900k+ gain. The employment report will be the final major data point that the BoC will receive ahead of its Apr 21 meeting where most economists expect the bank to announce a reduction in its weekly pace of QE.
EUR: EUR/USD rebounded strongly yesterday in line with higher stock markets. Still, as long as the eurozone is locked in a challenging Covid situation vs the faster vaccination and stronger recovery in the US, the near-term upside to EUR/USD is limited and EUR/USD should stay below the 1.1900 level this week.
GBP: The sterling continues to reap the vaccination dividend vs EUR. PM Johnson confirmed the plan for the gradual easing of restrictive measures yesterday. The downward pressure on EUR/GBP should remain in place while the GBP/USD will likely remain rangebound barring any broader market moves.
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