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FX taking a breather after a lively two weeks

USD: After a lively few weeks in global financial markets it seems that investors are ready to pause for breath and take stock. The fact that Joe Biden has secured 5 million more votes than Donald Trump gives Biden legitimacy – such investors seem to have no worry about a contested election. The news of the Pfizer vaccine has also been greeted warmly, although it may not prevent some further lockdowns this winter. For example, it seems that NY State may be the first to introduce new restrictions as the US daily case rate runs at 135k per day. These developments leave markets priced for recovery – but perhaps have come far enough for the time being. For today, we will see US October CPI, core expected to remain at 1.7% YoY. An integral building block of the weak dollar environment is that the Fed does nothing, even if CPI picks up. On that subject, short dated US rates have nudged a little higher this week, but nothing to trouble the dollar.

CAD: BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins is speaking via videoconference on “Exploring Life Post-COVID” at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. USD/CAD has been underpinned by broader-based USD strength over the past two days, with support at 1.3042 and resistance at 1.3099.

EUR: The EUR/USD looks to be settling into the middle of a 1.16-1.19 trading range. The ECB looks committed to easing in December and let’s see whether Lagarde has any further to add today. Let’s also look out for any articles in the ECB monthly bulletin today as well.

GBP: Brexiteers under pressure. News that Lee Cain, the PM’s director of communications, has resigned adds to the sense that the UK is closing in on a Brexit deal – Cain seen as close to Brexiteer Dominic Cummings.

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