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Feds keep tapering discussions open ended

USD - US Dollar

The dollar's initial decline on the FOMC statement and economic projections seemed at odds with the hawkish tilt. The dollar only seemed to go bid when Chair Powell said that tapering could be concluded next summer. Analysts are a little surprised that the dollar has not pushed further ahead overnight. Overall, the dollar remains bid on dips against low-yielding Europe in particular. Better performing should be the commodity complex backed by central bank tightening including Canada. DXY remains near the top of this year's range at 93.50/70, but barring an Evergrande default or some terrible September PMIs out of Europe, those resistance levels may stay intact today.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

CAD has been a middle-of-the-pack performer lifted by crude oil gains and commodities and constructive risk sentiment generally. The jump in CAD implied o/n volatility underscores the fact that the CAD will be highly reliant Fed’s policy tone should help shape trends in the future. As mentioned above, the loonie should fare well against its counterparts given our commodity-driven economy backed by the BoC which we expect to continue tightening over the coming months.

EUR - Euro

EUR/USD has again found support under 1.1700. Fresh inputs to the Euro story will come from the flash PMIs for September. The services industry has been recovering well, but the question will be whether manufacturing confidence takes another large step lower in response to China, ongoing supply chain disruption and most recently the surge in gas prices.

Today we also see the last big TV debate before Sunday's German election. It certainly is hard to pinpoint any impact on the EUR from German election polls, especially with the combination of any coalition far from certain. For now, the EUR will take direction from the greenback rather than domestic inputs.

GBP - British Pound

Analysts don’t believe that the BoE will deliver on market expectations of a first hike next April and 40bp of tightening for 2022. At the heart of the forecast is the BoE needing to see wage growth and second-round effects, rather than merely responding to the jump in headline inflation.

The UK economy faces headwinds this Autumn as the furlough scheme comes to an end, benefits are cut and taxes are set to be raised to fund social care. Failure of the BoE today to support those early tightening fears and a Fed story providing a supportive dollar back-drop suggests significant downside risk for the GBP.

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