As FX liquidity levels improve after Monday's US Labor Day holiday, it is time to re-assess some core themes. A dovish Fed still dominates global asset markets, allowing most equity markets to continue their gentle rallies. The second, and a central one to FX, is the outlook for domestic monetary conditions of which FX plays an important role. As central banks begin to taper, expect FX to firm up and adjust to core themes of interest rate differentials.
For today, the US data calendar remains light and we can see some more range trading before the pace of central bank meetings picks up later this week - with the highlight being Thursday's ECB meeting. Expect DXY to drift towards the lower end of a near-term range at 91.80/92.00.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
The CAD has failed to extend gains made following the USD’s slide below support in the high 1.25s last week and is virtually flat. Crude oil gains through $70/bbl helped nudge the CAD higher in otherwise quiet trade before giving up most of its gains. Crude prices look poised to extend a little more through the $70 area as OPEC+ appears to remain confident that rising global demand will keep markets undersupplied for now. Note that short-term US-Canada spreads continue to narrow as Canadian yields slip following the weaker than expected Q2 GDP report last week which may drag on the CAD’s performance ahead of the BoC policy decision & statement later this week.
EUR - Euro
European equities continue to perform quite well and despite fears about a Chinese slow-down and what it would mean for the European manufacturing sector, Chinese trade data for August surprisingly painted an encouraging picture. Both exports and imports far surpassed expectations. Equally today's release of German industrial production for July showed signs of life. EUR/USD has understandably been trading a quiet range in a holiday-thinned week but should stay supported into Thursday's ECB meeting where the pandemic PEPP asset purchase scheme is scheduled for review. EUR/USD to continue trading a 1.1850-1.1910 short-term range.
GBP - British Pound
Recently we had been warning about UK-EU tension at the end-September when deadlines expired on exclusions to the N.Ireland protocol. Yesterday we received some surprisingly good news from UK officials that these exclusions would be extended further, thus preventing new customs checks on chilled meat etc. Details on any agreement were sparse, but it does suggest that UK-EU negotiations are ongoing and presumably fruitful if the EU is prepared to extend them.
On another core topic, it does look like PM Johnson will go ahead with announcing a National Insurance tax rise later today to fund social care. This slight break on consumption will probably cement the views that the BoE terminal rate will struggle to make it above the 0.50% area - meaning that GBP receives no further support from the BoE story.
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