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Could US inflation actually come in above 6%? Yikes!

USD - US Dollar

The dollar has enjoyed some support this morning after having weakened across the board at the start of this week. Still, G10 FX volatility has remained subdued after last week’s central bank meetings and amid a lack of clear data catalysts. This all may change today as markets will weigh in on a US inflation report that looks set to show yet another acceleration in price growth. Consensus is looking at a jump from 5.4% to 6.0% in the headline rate.

Inflation at 6% will cause hawkish FOMC members to keep raising concerns about the risks of acting too late or doing too little on monetary tightening. The US economy is continuing to heat up and we think the risks are skewed towards a positive reaction by the dollar which could prompt markets to bring forward the pricing for the start of the Fed’s tightening cycle.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The CAD has been one of the livelier currencies over the past 24 hours but there aren’t any fundamental reasons to explain why. Yesterday we saw the USD/CAD aggressively run through 1.2476 while the EUR/CAD tested 1.4450 before backing off quite aggressively. The loonie seems to have settled this morning. The US CPI release will likely drive direction.

EUR - Euro

EUR/USD had held up around 1.1600 before falling this morning, after yesterday’s ZEW survey results out of Germany came in quite mixed, as more upbeat expectations offset a quite grim assessment of current conditions. We think we could see some extra EUR/USD weakness today as US CPI numbers are released and the eurozone data calendar does not include any market-moving releases. 1.1500 remains the key level to watch, and support that may be increasingly pressured in the near term.

GBP - British Pound

There aren’t many catalysts driving the pound at the moment, as markets await new data to weigh the timing of the first BoE hike after last week’s surprise hold. Some downside risk may emerge for the pound in the coming days as it looks increasingly likely that the UK will unilaterally suspend parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Today’s US CPI numbers will drive direction.

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