Commodities crushed on concerns surrounding China’s growth
USD - US Dollar
Price action continues as predicted in the aftermath of Friday’s payroll report, although the sharp fall in commodities has clouded the picture for FX markets. The dollar rally has been gentle but broad with the markets caught between the better data out of the US at the back end of the last week versus the commodity sell-off which has led to fresh concerns surrounding Chinese growth as delta starts to hamper mobility once more.
Overall whilst acknowledging downside risks from the delta variant, the rise in yields amidst better US data and upbeat Fedspeak is tentatively the more interesting story. As long as CPI is not another massive beat in the US tomorrow the environment looks like one where concerns are beginning to be shaken off after a volatile July and markets can gain a tad more confidence in the economic outlook once again.
EUR - Euro
The euro is edging lower, with a test of the year’s lows in sight at 1.1704. Most analysts are looking for lower levels and possibly below 1.17 if CPI data tomorrow prints on the high side. The low and looser for the longer stance of the ECB under its new inflation mandate will drag on the EUR over the medium term against practically all G10 currencies. The domestic calendar is bare of market-moving data releases or events and developments out of the US will again call the shots for the EUR.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
CAD traded very well in the London morning, even as Oil dropped by 4%. This changed somewhat in the afternoon by what appeared to be USD demand which once again saw USD/CAD testing the 1.2580/1.2610 area. The market view continues to suggest that the CAD should pick up steam against the USD in the medium term based on central bank policy divergence. That said, in the short term, a break above 1.2610 would suggest a move back towards the July high at 1.2800.
GBP - British Pound
Very little news on the GBP to speak of. Focus remains on Fed-speak for now following some doves turning more hawkish/NFP and yesterday saw some hawks being hawkish. Today is a very quiet day in the UK with very limited data. CPI tomorrow should provide further direction for the week. Support is located at 1.3765 while resistance remains in the 1.3880/90 level.
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