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Cautious Fed holds further upside for the greenback

USD: Federal Reserve Chair Powell halting the dollar upside Fed Chair Powell stuck to his mantra of caution in his testimony yesterday and, despite the sharply rising US consumer price index (CPI), he pointed out that it is too early to start thinking about imminent tightening and that any reduction in QE purchases is still way off. With the Fed still believing in the transitory nature of inflation pressures and no imminent and premature tightening on the cards, this suggests the CAD and other currencies where central banks are beginning to tighten should remain supported over the coming months.

CAD: USD/CAD was lower heading into the BoC meeting, presumably as speculation grew that the BoC would be more hawkish than expected. The bank delivered as expected, tapering from C$3b to C$2b and leaving the forecast for the output gap closure at 2H 2022. The BoC also tweaked forecasts, 2022 GDP Growth was upgraded from 3.7% to 4.6% which saw USD/CAD hit the low of the day at 1.24205, before moving back above 1.2500. The OPEC+/UAE news may well be weighing on the loonie as Oil comes under pressure. Given the different pressure points for the currency, most expect the USD/CAD to trade between the 1.2410- 1.2600 window in the short term.

EUR: Powell's comments yesterday managed to halt the EUR/USD decline but rather than looking for a meaningful reversal in EUR/USD, a stabilization in the pair is more likely over the coming weeks as the Fed is nonetheless closer to policy normalization than the ECB. Still, the cautious comments from Chair Powell should help to reverse the recent losses in European FX, particularly where central banks are expected to begin a monetary tightening cycle.

GBP: Both solid UK employment numbers this morning and June's CPI yesterday were a modest positive for GBP. Based on short-term financial fair value models the GBP remained undervalued against its peers and is likely to remain supported in the short term.

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