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Canada Reports Retail Sales This Morning

USD - US Dollar

The resignation of UK prime minister Liz Truss reverberated across FX in a largely risk-positive way yesterday. It is likely that the upcoming period of fresh political uncertainty in the UK will continue to drive a portion of global risk sentiment. Yesterday’s small correction in the dollar proved very short-lived. Markets have pushed their peak Fed rate expectations to the 5.0% mark. This rate environment continues to shed doubts about the sustainability of any rally in equities, and chances that the dollar will receive more safe-haven flows are elevated. The US calendar is very light data-wise today and two Fed members are due to speak. Look for the USD to continue to maintain its dominance.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

Canada reports August retail sales today. After the 2.5% drop in July retail sales are expected to have stabilized in August. This week's takeaway is that the strong CPI reading increased the risk of a 75 bp hike on October 26. The Canadian dollar has seen support from the shift in expectations and the loonie continues to appear sensitive to the broader risk environment. The US dollar is above 1.3820 and is trading at four-day highs. Look for the loonie to continue to be driven by the overall risk environment today.  Observe the USD/CAD trends.

EUR - Euro

The ECB has entered its quiet period ahead of the 27 October policy meeting should bring another 75bp hike but likely very little support to the euro. On the data side, markets will monitor consumer confidence data for September today, with consensus centred around another drop (to -30.0) from what are already all-time lows in the series. It looks like 0.9800 is working as an anchor for EUR/USD in the short term unless we receive some truly exciting news from the ongoing EU summit, which has so far only displayed lingering divergence in EU members’ views on energy price caps. Most analysts continue to maintain a bearish bias on EUR/USD and expect a drop below 0.9500 by year-end.

GBP - British Pound

The simmering uncertainty over which candidate will now replace the British Prime Minister, Liz Truss has probably prevented sterling from moving too far out of this week’s trading range. From a wholistic view:

  1. UK politicians will struggle to quickly reclaim all of the lost fiscal credibility.
  2. US real interest rates look set to push even higher this year meaning that GBP/USD will likely struggle to break above the 1.15 area over coming weeks.

Currency Chart

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