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CAD Steadies with the Help of Stronger Crude; USDCAD Capped Above 1.26.

USD: DXY is testing the key 200-day moving average resistance level at 92.63, with the dollar up against all G10 FX overnight despite stabilising Asia equity markets and equity futures pointing to a modestly higher European open. With Europe battling the third pandemic wave, near-term risks are skewed to higher dollar and further rises in DXY. It is a very quiet day on the US data front, with the final estimate of Q4 GDP to have a limited impact on the dollar.

CAD: BoC DG Gravelle’s comments earlier this week revealed that the BoC would shortly wind down all of its crisis liquidity programs as market conditions have normalized and, by discussing the tapering process, indicated that policy makers might well be considering reducing the amount of monetary stimulus provided via asset purchases in the next few months. Canada’s slow vaccine roll out remains a drag on the outlook but relatively firm commodity prices generally, the domestic economy’s stronger than expected recovery, and BoC policy outlook should help limit short-term CAD weakness.

EUR: EUR/USD continues struggling, with 1.1750-1.1800 being the next key test area for the cross. EU leaders meet today and there will be much attention focused on the “vaccine war” between the EU and UK, though last night’s joint statement suggested a slightly more positive background. Most commentators think an export ban can be avoided. President Biden will address the meeting.

GBP: While GBP has struggled lately, most analysts suggest that its short term financial fair value has improved vs both the USD and the EUR over the past 2 weeks. Markets are relatively quiet today leaving the pound to trade on broad market themes.

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