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CAD fails to move higher despite strong commodity prices

USD: The dollar started the week on an offered tone as investors look at recovery stories outside of the US and also at the temporary breakdown in OPEC+ negotiations. Focus remains more on recovery stories than the risks of the Delta variant sucking the world economy back into stagnation. Some stability in south-east Asian currencies this week bears testament to the latter point.

With the dollar in consolidation mode ahead of tomorrow evening's FOMC minutes and emerging market currencies showing a little more stability, DXY could edge a little lower today - perhaps to the 92.00 area. And depending on how the dollar copes with the bullish event risk of those FOMC minutes tomorrow, this period of DXY consolidation could extend further through the summer and continue to allow local recovery stories to win through elsewhere in the world.

CAD: The CAD remained rangebound overnight with movement from stronger commodity prices. The CAD has not benefitted from higher crude oil prices as markets probably foresee only near term price pressures. Yesterday’s BoC Business Outlook Survey showed a near-record share of firms (35%) expecting inflation to be above 3% over the next two years which confirms expectations that the bank will again scale back its pace of QE at next week’s meeting. The CAD should outperform in the lead-up to the meeting but markets will likely wait until the tail end of the week before taking the currency significantly higher (after the Fed’s minutes on Wednesday and Canada’s jobs report on Friday).

EUR: There does not seem much on the eurozone calendar today to spark a positive re-assessment of the euro - although a big bounce in May retail sales could provide the EUR with some support. EUR/USD could nudge back to the 1.1910 area today - but we would not get carried away.

GBP: GBP is enjoying some outperformance. This may be linked to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's speech last night about fully reopening the economy and learning to live with Covid-19. Yet this link looks very fragile and even the Bank of England would admit that the final stage of reopening the economy will have little impact on economic activity.

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