The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its estimate of GDP today, and markets expect the American economy has grown by 2.5% after growing 6.7% in Q2. Strong manufacturing and retail data surprised in Q3. However, investors wonder if the GDP data will impact the US Federal Reserve’s financial policy outlook. The Fed meets on November 3rd, so time will tell whether Chair Powell will follow the hawkish direction the Bank of Canada has taken. The US Dollar Index opened slightly higher today.
The Bank of Canada’s interest rates are until the middle of 2022, which is earlier than expected. BoC Governor Macklem also told the media the central bank revised its GDP growth projections to a strong, but slightly lower than previously forecast 6.5% for 2021, and 4.25 for 2022. It also ended its quantitative easing bond-buying program. Crude oil prices fell to 81.10 today on a rise of US crude supplies, weighing on the commodity-driven currency. USD continued its rebound in the European session, and closed at 1.2355, and is trading in a range between 1.2310 and 1.2429.
ECB President Lagarde is expected to use all of her diplomatic skills today and try to appease the hawks and the doves. Lagarde could acknowledge higher inflation and encourage the European community that core inflation will fall in 2022. Provided energy inventory challenges get resolved, supply chain bottlenecks get unclogged, and COVID 19-variants fade, that could be the case. In the meantime, the EUR/USD closed at 1.1604 and is trading in a range between 1.1585 and 1.1623.
There are calls for the Bank of England to hike rates as post-Brexit tussles continue. France threatened to block UK fishing ships if they don’t concede on the fishing arrangements and matters like the Irish border. The British government threatened to retaliate if the ECB doesn’t yield on the matter. GBP seems to be consolidating, GBP/USD closed at 1.3749 and is trading between 1.3711 and 1.3768.
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