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Biden further ahead after debate

USD: The last US Presidential debate overnight did not change much about US election prospects with President Trump, who currently trails in polls, failing to damage Biden’s campaign and change the election dynamics. On the US fiscal stimulus front, while there has been a constructive message from House Speaker Pelosi, nothing remains done and odds of stimulus coming before the election date are not high. The election risk event and the lack of imminent fiscal stimulus should prevent USD from more meaningful losses in coming weeks, particularly if the deteriorating Covid situation in Europe keeps the uncertainty about the EZ and global growth outlook for this winter in place.

CAD: The loonie continues to reflect broader market risk sentiment. This past week’s Business Outlook Survey showed sentiment had bounced from the Q2 trough but remains near all time lows, with prospects clouded by weak demand and the uncertainty surrounding the health crisis; this is hardly surprising. Crude oil is little changed (just around $41); OPEC+ concerns about the state of “precarious” demand for energy may delay its plans to increase output. USD/CAD features support at 1.3099 and resistance at 1.3149, with a daily closing break of either level required for new short‐term directional bias.

EUR: Focus today is on Oct EZ PMI. With the second wave being now the reality in Europe, this should underline the divergence between the more severely hit services sector vs manufacturing. The Composite EZ PMI index may dip back into contraction territory. Coupled with CPI being well below the target, all this points to the extension of the PSPP in December. Similarly, the odds of extension of bond buying is also growing in Sweden, where Governor Ingves noted that the Riksbank can buy more covered and municipal bonds - with QE being preferred to rate cuts (which also seems to apply to the ECB).

GBP: As the restart of UK-EU trade negotiations is being fully in the price, EUR/GBP should now stall around the 0.90 level as an imminent progress is unlikely and negotiations should continue into mid Nov. Today’s UK PMIs should have a very limited impact on sterling, as the GBP price action is about trade negotiations. Similarly, the UK government announcement yesterday of improved terms for the UK Job Support scheme also had a limited impact on GBP.

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