USD: Risk assets continue to find some support from rising hopes around a pre-election fiscal stimulus bill in the US. Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Mnuchin continue to inch closer in intense talks, although the Democrats are reportedly sticking to their original $2.2tn proposal while the Government’s counteroffer is at $1.88tn. Not much progress appears to have been made on bringing reluctant GOP Senators on board, and this appears to be the biggest hurdle to an agreement. This story may well remain the dominant driver for markets for the rest of this week as both parties aim to reach a potential deal by the weekend. Today, other events are still set to play second fiddle, including the release of the Fed Beige Book and some Fedspeak. All in all, the chances of a stimulus bill being passed still look rather thin and we doubt investors have high expectations in these terms, so we suspect that any collapse in the negotiations would not have major negative market implications.
CAD: The loonie continues to remain more appealing with significantly better fundamentals compared to the its G10 commodity peers. One of the factors at play has been the low expectations for further BoC easing and today’s inflation data for September in Canada is unlikely to make a difference in these terms. Low inflation does not seem a major concern for the BoC just yet and good signals from the jobs market suggests some room for a relatively decent Sept read.
EUR: The EUR continues to be a key beneficiary of the US-stimulus-related upbeat market mood and EUR/USD may test 1.1900 today as another very quiet day in terms of data releases in the eurozone offers no idiosyncratic catalysts.
GBP: Still little progress appears to have been made as the EU and UK attempt to resume trade talks this week and contradictory news flow continues to prompt some intraday oscillations in sterling without allowing the currency to take any definite direction. We are likely to keep seeing this type of price action as the path for negotiations still appears very uncertain and markets have shown some resistance to price in a no-deal outcome - as demonstrated by the absence of risk premium embedded into GBP.
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