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A Day of Calm Before Tomorrow's Fed Meeting

USD: FX markets should remain fairly stable today, with the dollar taking a pause in its decline, particularity against low yielding currencies such as the EUR or JPY, ahead of the Fed meeting and guidance tomorrow. On the US data front today, look for above-consensus November industrial production following decent readings from surveys of the sector. Still, the impact on USD will be limited, with all eyes being on the FOMC tomorrow.

CAD: The CAD is little changed, holding near recent highs against a weak USD but somewhat reluctant to join the herd of broader currency gains despite a CAD-supportive backdrop of firmer stocks and rising commodity prices. We remain constructive on the CAD outlook however, the CAD rally may pause in the near-term as markets assess recent gains.

EUR: With EUR passing the two big idiosyncratic risk events this month, namely the ECB meeting and the EU budget and recovery fund approvals untouched, EUR/USD can return to being primarily driven by the dollar side and its weak dynamics. For today, EUR/USD should remain flat but we look for a modestly stronger bias for the rest of the week if the Fed keeps risk assets supported tomorrow.

GBP: Following its rebound yesterday, GBP has now stabilized, pencilling in lower odds of a negative outcome from the UK-EU trade negotiations. This is also evident the GBP risk premium, which has halved since the close on Friday (from around 2% to 1%, based on our short-term financial fair value). The reduced imminent risk of the worst-case scenario is also evident in the modestly changed rhetoric, with UK officials now describing a no-deal outcome as ''possible'' vs ''very likely'' or ''most likely'' in prior days. Negotiations may continue even beyond the Bank of England meeting this Thursday.

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