Sticky Registration Sticky Customer Support

Weekly Currency Update

Get access to our expert weekly market analysis and discover and track your currency pair using our exchange rate tools.

Macro Fundamentals Looks Supportive of the CAD

Weekly Currency Forecast 02 05 2022
    • While USD/CAD reached highs of 1.28 on Friday, the USD's late-week decline has left the CAD as one of the best performing major currencies, second only to the USD. The CAD's recovery from its lows indicates some USD consolidation/weakness in general, as well as some equities stabilization following a bad month for US stocks. The volatility index momentarily fell below 30, but if the CAD is to rebound further from here, calmer markets will have to prevail—which is not a guarantee. Note that current fair value models suggest that the CAD is slightly overvalued, implying that short-term CAD gains are restricted.

CAD Capped below 1.29

  • The macro fundamentals are supportive of the CAD, and most remain optimistic about the CAD's long-term prospects. In contrast to many of its counterparts, Canada's economy maintained strong momentum in the early part of the year; industry-level GDP climbed beyond estimates, and the flash estimate for March GDP is a respectable 0.5 percent. With the PMI and employment report this week, we get a glimpse at April patterns. Few other countries can match Canada's fundamental backdrop of steady growth and rising interest rates. For the time being, this may suggest that CAD weakening (beyond the 1.29 level) is restricted rather than large upside possibilities.

The week ahead

  • This week's data for North America is top-notch, with PMI and ISM data for both Canada and the United States, as well as trade and employment statistics for both countries. The early consensus is 390,000 non-farm payroll job increases (+431,00 in March) and a 3.6 percent unemployment rate. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday is certainly the main focus; markets are pricing in a 50bps raise and will be looking for the policy statement to confirm expectations of more "expeditious" hikes in the future. In addition, the BoC has two speaking engagements. On Tuesday, Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will talk, and on Thursday, DG Schembri will speak. Neither event will focus too much on the near-term policy outlook, which has already been determined by Governor Macklem's recent comments, which indicate that a 50bps raise in June is likely.

This week’s trading range

  • Despite last week’s push on in the USD to the upper 1.28s, the USD/CAD is likely to consolidate in a range between 1.2650 – 1.2900 in the week ahead.

Currency Chart

Get access to our market experts and sign up to receive the latest updates on any currency with our real-time exchange rate reports.

Sign up to receive the latest market news from our experts.

Daily Currency Updates
Daily Market Analysis
Get daily intelligence and currency reports directly to your inbox.
Weekly FX Technical Analysis
Weekly Technical Analysis
Get our weekly technical analysis providing valuable insights.
Monthly Currency Outlook
Monthly Currency Outlook
Receive our monthly currency report and help improve your forecasts.

By entering your email address you agree to the MTFX Terms Of Use and MTFX Privacy Policy and agree and agree to receive sales and marketing communications. Unsubscribe at anytime.


Individuals and businesses who need to send money in foreign currency internationally can use MTFX’s services. The beneficiary of the transfer must have a bank account for the funds to be paid into. Personal clients usually use our services to transfer money between their own accounts in two different countries. Business clients usually use our services to transfer funds to suppliers, fund international operations, or repatriate overseas earnings.
MTFX offers currency exchange rates that are 2-5% better than those offered by the banks. Personal clients usually save hundreds of dollars per transfer and for larger transfers, the savings can run into the thousands. We also offer excellent customer service, dedicated currency specialists, and a 24/7 online platform with best-in-class technology that allows you to complete transfers from any device virtually anywhere in the world. Business customers save with better currency exchange rates and proven solutions geared towards managing and mitigating foreign exchange risk. Our solutions include forward contracts, market orders, rate alert services, and much more - all backed by great technology and great people.
Funds can be transferred via wire transfer, Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT), or ACH payment services. MTFX maintains bank accounts in all major currencies with highly-rated banks. Our banking infrastructure ensures that you can transfer funds to us quickly and securely.
Our global network of banking partners allows us to get funds to virtually anywhere in the world quickly and efficiently. Most wire transfers from MTFX will be received by your beneficiary within 24-48 hours. MTFX also offers same-day transfers that are almost instantaneous, as well as low-cost in-country payment services for your less urgent transfers. For further information please speak to one of our currency specialists.