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Weekly Currency Update

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Loonie Continues to Track Weak USD

Loonie Continues to Track Weak USD

  • Last week, the CAD disappointed, finishing flat against a generally weaker USD. As a result, the CAD has continued to lose value against several major FX crosses, continuing its trend of closely mirroring the USD's losses as investors move their money outside of North America. Most analysts anticipate that this weakening trend will hold versus the EUR, GBP and JPY in the coming weeks.

CAD has Little Room to Rise in the Immediate Future

  • Regarding the short-term prospects for USD/CAD, we continue to be cautious. Our projection for the year's end is 1.35, which suggests that the CAD has little room to rise in the immediate future. We don't expect the CAD to appreciate significantly against the USD until later in 2023, when we anticipate a more favorable risk climate to create a more conducive environment for the CAD. With predictions based on spreads, commodities, volatility, and stocks settling just around the 1.35-mark, fair value models suggest that spot is now undervalued. Correlation matrices highlight strengthening correlations with the S&P 500 and equites in general. The increase in CAD/commodities correlation may be an issue to watch in the coming weeks given evolving recessionary fears. The week ahead model anticipates modest downward pressure on the USD around a 1.3210/1.3530 range as a guide.

The Week Ahead

  • The data release schedule dramatically increases this week after a calm prior week. On Tuesday, Canada releases its September GDP and employment figures are set to be released Friday. In the US its jobs week as well, but before that, early in the week, we receive statistics on regional Fed activities, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment. The Beige Book and ADP jobs statistics will both be released on Wednesday. Data on personal income, spending, and PCE are made public on Thursday. NFP report is released on Friday. The early forecast calls for a 200k job increase. In addition to the data, a number of Fed representatives will speak this week. The FOMC blackout period starts Dec 3rd.

This Week’s Technical Trading Range

  • From a technical perspective, resistance is located at 1.3490/1.3500 while support is located at 1.3325/1.3300.

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