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Weekly Currency Update

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Greenback could run higher but we expect the loonie to keep pace

Greenback could run higher but we expect the loonie to keep pace

Greenback could run higher but we expect the loonie to keep pace

  • Last week a surge in US CPI data showed prices increased 6% Y/Y in October, the highest pace since 1990. The data prompted markets to place a higher probability on the Fed starting its tightening cycle sooner than expected. Futures now suggesting a high risk that lift-off starts in June—which would more or less coincide with the Fed winding up its QE program. Inflation concerns have also pushed the White House to contemplate taking steps to limit price increases, putting pressure on crude contracts.
  • CAD sentiment was weighed down last week by lower crude prices and a slight narrowing of CAD yield spreads, but we should note that broader fundamental underpinnings for the CAD remain very positive; with fair value models currently suggesting a USD/CAD range of about 1.2200.

Canadian data releases:

  • Following a very quiet data-free week, economic reports will resume this week. The October CPI and September Retail Sales will be of particular importance in Canada. The inflation rate is expected to show a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase, however, surprisingly positive inflation data from the United States and China last week should warn us of some upside risk for Canadian statistics as well. Retail sales are expected to dip 1.9 percent in September hampered by supply restrictions, but shouldn’t have too much impact on the direction of the loonie.

This week’s trading range:

  • Though we continue to remain fundamentally tied to a higher loonie, last week’s momentum does favor the USD. A push for the USD/CAD north of 1.26 cannot be ruled out; we expect a trading range between 1.24-1.26 for the coming week.

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